🚨【Data Report】Bitcoin's total network computing power plummeted nearly 30%, with the hash rate dropping sharply from approximately 620 EH/s to about 430 EH/s within 48 hours, marking the largest short-term contraction in 2024 so far. This sudden fluctuation is not due to market price changes or network protocol adjustments; it is primarily pointing to a critical regional event.
🔍【Event Focus: Regulatory Intervention in Key Areas】Multiple on-chain data and infrastructure reports corroborate that this drastic drop in computing power is directly related to sudden regulatory inspections in certain areas of Xinjiang, China. This region, due to historically low energy costs (in some areas, electricity costs can be below $0.05/kWh), still has a considerable scale of unreported mining activities after the comprehensive ban in 2021. Preliminary estimates suggest that this action may lead to over 400,000 high-performance ASIC miners (primarily mainstream models like the Antminer S19 series) being forced offline.
📈【Background Analysis: Hidden Computing Power Composition】In recent years, the global distribution of Bitcoin computing power has shown characteristics of 'surface decentralization with local high concentration.' Some regions rely on abandoned energy facilities not included in statistics (such as photovoltaic/wind farms that have been shut down or are not grid-connected in Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, etc.) for clustered deployment, forming what is known as 'gray computing power.' Although this type of computing power has increased the total hash rate of the entire network, its concealment and policy uncertainty remain potential variables affecting network stability.
🌍【Market Impact and Restructuring】
1. Network Difficulty Adjustment: It is expected that in the next adjustment cycle, approximately two weeks later, the Bitcoin network difficulty will see a significant reduction (estimated decrease of over 20%), and the retained compliance miners' unit computing power earnings will temporarily rise.
2. Accelerated Global Computing Power Migration: This event will further accelerate the migration of computing power to open, compliant jurisdictions. The computing power share of North American listed mining companies (such as Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital) and compliant mining sites in Kazakhstan is expected to significantly increase in the next quarterly financial report.
3. Energy Structure Issues: The event once again highlights the close connection between Bitcoin mining and the global energy structure transformation. The process of compliance is essentially an evolution of mining activities from the utilization of 'marginal abandoned electricity' to a 'sustainable energy procurement' contract model.
💡【Trend Outlook: De-risking and Specialization】As regulatory frameworks gradually become clearer globally, the core driving force of Bitcoin mining is shifting from simply 'seeking the lowest electricity price' to 'optimal energy contracts and capital efficiency under compliance.' Institutionalization, transparency, and the integration of green energy have become key to obtaining long-term operational licenses. This regional event is not the end but a symbolic node in the global computing power's final 'reshuffling' and 'standardization' process.
❓【Interactive Discussion】From the perspective of mining economics, do you think that the frequent occurrence of such regional risk events will promote the rapid development of computing power derivatives (such as computing power futures and insurance)? Will the final stable distribution of global computing power tend more towards geographical decentralization or centralized compliance at the sovereign nation level? We welcome you to share your professional insights.
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