Bitwise, the world’s largest crypto index fund manager with more than $15 billion in assets under management, has released a bold prediction: institutional demand for crypto ETFs will exceed the total new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana in 2026.

If this scenario unfolds, the market may face a severe supply imbalance that could fuel significant price appreciation.

According to Matt Hougan (Bitwise CIO) and Ryan Rasmussen (Head of Research), the long-term influx of institutional capital is the primary reason why newly issued tokens may no longer be able to meet future demand.

Institutional Buying to Surpass New Supply – A Potential “Supply Squeeze”

In its latest outlook for 2026, Bitwise states that newly created BTC, ETH, and SOL supply will fall short of what institutional investors purchase through ETFs.

New supply refers to tokens entering circulation through mining, staking rewards, or protocol issuance.

If ETF demand continues to grow at this pace, the market could experience:

  • a structural liquidity shortage (supply squeeze)

  • persistent upward price pressure

  • fundamental change in the behavior of the three largest crypto assets

Bitwise stresses that this is a prediction, not a guaranteed outcome.

ETFs Already Buy More BTC Than the Market Produces

Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, the market has shifted dramatically.

During this period, ETFs have purchased 710,777 BTC, while miners produced only 363,047 BTC.

Demand is therefore nearly double the rate of supply, showing that the trend is already underway.

Traditional giants such as Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch have enabled their clients to include crypto in their portfolios, pushing the market firmly into institutional territory.

Bitwise expects over 100 new crypto ETFs to be launched in the United States in 2026.

Bitcoin Could Break Its Historic Four-Year Cycle

Bitwise also predicts that 2026 will be a turning point for Bitcoin:

BTC may break the traditional four-year halving cycle for the first time.

Historically, Bitcoin’s behavior has been shaped by:

  • halving events

  • retail speculation

  • cyclical momentum

However, Bitwise argues that institutional capital—especially through spot ETFs—will become the dominant force shaping the market, overriding these earlier patterns.

As a result, Bitcoin may begin behaving more like a mature macro asset, similar to gold, rather than a purely cyclical one.

Regulation Paves the Way for Massive Adoption

2025 brought a major regulatory shift. The SEC streamlined the approval process for spot crypto ETFs, reducing timelines and creating a predictable, repeatable framework for issuers.

As a result, Bitcoin and crypto ETFs shifted rapidly from niche financial instruments to mainstream portfolio-building products.

Bitwise believes this institutional infrastructure will solidify crypto’s position within long-term investment strategies.

What This Means for the Market

If ETFs truly purchase more than 100% of new BTC, ETH, and SOL supply, the crypto market may enter an era defined by:

  • chronic liquidity shortages

  • long-term upward pressure on prices

  • reduced reliance on retail speculation

  • deeper integration with institutional capital

According to Bitwise, 2026 could mark the year when crypto transitions from a speculative asset class into a central component of global financial infrastructure.

#crypto , #bitcoin , #Ethereum , #BTC , #ETH

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