First, let's talk about the U.S. non-farm data
The unemployment rate has risen, which should normally signal a poor economy. But why hasn't the market (U.S. stocks, Bitcoin) dropped? Instead, it has remained stable or even increased a bit?
The core idea is simple: the market only wants to hear the story of 'interest rate cuts' right now.
The worse the data, the more everyone thinks: 'See, the economy can't hold up, Federal Reserve, hurry up and cut rates to save the market!'
Thus, a 'bad data' point is interpreted by the market as good news that 'rate cuts are coming.' Naturally, the market won’t drop. To put it bluntly, the current market sentiment is: don't talk to me about whether the economy is healthy or not, just tell me if you're cutting rates.
Now let's talk about Japan's interest rate hike
The market has known about this for a long time; the cards have been on the table for several months. All expectations that 'Japan is going to end negative interest rates' have long been priced in.
So when the official announcement day finally arrives, it may easily result in 'good news being fully priced in is bad news,' or there might not be any significant movement at all. It's like knowing it will definitely rain tomorrow; when it actually rains, you won't be surprised.
The real key is not 'how much was added this time,' but 'will there be further increases in the future.' If this is just the beginning, then it truly is a 'slow knife cutting meat,' and the pressure on the market will come gradually later. The current market has already completed the story of the 'first interest rate hike.'
