LUNA has recently dropped significantly, and short-term pressure is evident
Terra (#LUNA ) started to drop significantly from Monday, falling by 20.1% in just one day, and stopped at $0.127 in the early hours of Tuesday. The current price fluctuates between $0.127 and $0.135, around $0.13 at the time of writing. Previously, some analysts pointed out that $0.15-$0.16 was a good buying zone, but with the price declining, this bullish expectation has temporarily fallen through. In the short term, both bulls and bears are in fierce contention.
The long-term trend remains bearish, but there are short-term opportunities
From the 3-day chart, LUNA has been in a downtrend since May 2022. Although the price occasionally breaks through the market structure showing bullish signs, it has not been able to maintain for long. It is nearly impossible to recover to the $80 or even $100 levels before the Terra collapse, but short-term traders can still profit from small rebounds. Recently, the price broke through the local high of $0.168 in mid-September, indicating a short-term bullish market structure, but there is still significant resistance above.
Bearish pressure is intensifying
The 4-hour chart shows that the LUNA bulls are barely holding the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.13. The significant volatility on Monday has allowed the low-timeframe demand area of $0.15-$0.18 to fall to the bears, with selling pressure clearly increasing in the short term. The trading volume and OBV indicator show an increase in trading activity, but this actually highlights the difficulty for the bulls to maintain their position. In the short term, the bears still dominate.
Key support and resistance points
To maintain a short-term bullish outlook, LUNA must return above $0.155, which is also the key support level from the previous week's increase. If it cannot hold above $0.13, there may be further declines below. The weak performance of BTC also puts pressure on LUNA, and only if Bitcoin breaks through $94,000 will market sentiment strengthen, giving LUNA a greater chance for a rebound. Otherwise, the likelihood of a rebound to $0.2 or $0.24 remains limited.
Trading Strategy Reference
Traders can focus on the support around $0.13. If the price can reclaim $0.155, there may be an opportunity for short-term bulls. However, the current structure indicates that the bulls are struggling to establish a solid upward trend, with significant bearish pressure. A short-term bearish strategy can focus on situations where the price fails to maintain key support, patiently waiting for confirmation of short-term market signals.
Summary
LUNA has recently failed to hold the short-term demand area at $0.155. The performance of Ethereum and Bitcoin is weak, making it difficult for the bulls to form a stable trend. The risk of a short-term pullback is significant, and investors and traders should pay attention to the dynamics of key support levels and act cautiously. Although there is still a slight opportunity for a rebound in the market, the long-term trend still leans towards downward.
