The impact of Japan's successive interest rate hikes on Bitcoin.

Since the Bank of Japan started normalization in 2024, each rate hike has triggered the unwinding of yen arbitrage trades, leading to a global liquidity squeeze, with high-risk assets being the first to suffer—Bitcoin saw a sharp decline in the short term!

Core: Low-interest borrowing in yen to invest in Bitcoin, with costs rising after the rate hike + yen appreciation, leading to a forced sell-off chain reaction.

Learning from history:

2024.3: End of negative interest rates → 0.1%, BTC fell by 23-27%

2024.7: Raised to 0.25%, BTC dropped from 65,000 to 50,000, a decline of 26-30%

2025.1: Raised to 0.5%, BTC underwent deep adjustments, falling by 30-31%

2025.12 (18-19 highly anticipated +25bp to 0.75%): The market has reacted in advance, and there is a high probability of another drop of 20-30%, possibly breaking 70,000 dollars! Currently, BTC has fallen back from its peak (around the 80-90,000 range)

Short-term pain, what about the medium to long term? Rate hikes reinforce BTC's "digital gold" attributes, but don't overlook liquidity risks.

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