In the first two interest rate hikes in Japan, I lost a total of 14 million in profits. The first interest rate hike in Japan was from the end of July to August 5 last year, where a 600,000 USD long position in BN and a 420,000 USD long position in OKX were both liquidated. At that time, I had so much money that it was burning, and with heavy positions, I didn't monitor the market and was wandering around without paying attention to these losses, because the capital invested in 2022 had all been withdrawn after October 2023. Later, two days before Trump took office, I bottomed out near 65,850 and held on until it broke 100,000 to take profit, gradually recovering the losses from the August interest rate hike in Japan. The second interest rate hike in Japan was from the end of January to February 3 this year. On January 24, the day it announced the interest rate hike, and in the following days, there was not much movement, and I didn't pay much attention, but on the morning of February 3 (the sixth day of the Lunar New Year), it suddenly spiked. I was flying from Chengdu to Bangkok, and as soon as I got off the plane, I was stunned to see that ETH had suddenly dropped nearly a thousand points, with ETH liquidating at 2,100, ultimately dropping to around 2,080. More than 70 ETH in long positions vanished in an instant, along with long positions in BTC and SOL worth several tens of thousands of USD being liquidated, causing a bloodbath in the entire market. From February to April, I kept shorting during the one-sided decline until I slowly recovered. After April, I faced various setbacks, listened to the fortune teller's advice that 2025 would be an unfavorable year needing conservative investments, and that 2026, the Year of the Horse, would be favorable for seeking opportunities, so I basically didn't play with much capital after April.
After experiencing two interest rate hikes in Japan and the sudden drops, it took millions at low prices to realize its importance. Before this, I never reviewed my trades, just like my buddy, I was aggressive in going long (aggressively making big profits quickly during a strong upward trend). The tuition in this market is very expensive.
Now, with the third interest rate hike in Japan, I have been waiting for more than a month in advance, just to prepare for big funds to rush in at this time, laying the groundwork for a reversal in fortunes in 2026.
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