Coin friends, I am Zhao Gongming! Today, a monitoring message gave me chills: the biggest short, $ZEC is quietly closing positions and retreating! He has reduced his short position from 16.5 million to 9.1 million. Is this the shorts making a profit and running away, or have they heard something? Follow Zhao Gongming to understand the signals behind ZEC!
News: The big short is retreating, is it a blessing or a curse?
This 'biggest short' is not an ordinary person. He opened a short in October and at one point had a floating loss of 21 million but did not exit. Holding on until now, he is finally in profit. His current reduction in positions indicates that he believes the space for ZEC to continue dropping significantly is limited. However, he has shifted funds to short other coins, which shows he still has a bearish outlook on the market, just not on ZEC's further individual collapse. This is a slight positive for ZEC in the short term, possibly indicating reduced selling pressure, but don't celebrate too early—this doesn't mean a surge is imminent.
Technical analysis: Reality is harsh.
The trend overwhelmingly looks bearish: from 30 minutes to daily, all are 'strong sells'. The moving average shows 12 sells to 0 buys, which is a textbook-level downtrend.
Key position: 400 is strong resistance, 389 is the current threshold. If it can't even touch 400, it shows the bulls are weak. Below, 370 is a paper-thin support; once it breaks, 326 is very likely to be lost.
MACD death cross confirmed: below the 0 axis, death cross + energy reduction, this is a signal for accelerating decline. The white line is always below water, indicating that no one is truly willing to pump money.
Funds are still fleeing: Don't be fooled by a slight inflow in spot over one day; short-term funds and contract funds are nearly all net outflow. Especially contracts, with 1 hour outflow of 1.85 million, and 4 hours outflow of 34.05 million—leveraged players are panicking and exiting, which is not a bottom characteristic.
Zhao Gongming's daily sharing. If it helps you, you can follow Zhao Gongming to get first-hand news and entry points in the chat room!
Zhao Gongming's opinion:
A major bear reduction will bring a brief respite, but it won't change the downtrend. I judge that ZEC's rebound will struggle to surpass 400; more likely, it will sway near 389 before continuing to test 370 downwards. Once it breaks down with volume below 370, the second support at 326 will soon be seen. The weekly 'strong buy' is a distant water, unable to save the near fire.
Retail investor operation suggestion:
Advice for holding long positions: If the rebound cannot break through the 398-400 range, decisively reduce positions! If it falls below 385, consider stop-loss; don't bet that 370 will definitely hold.
Advice for trying to catch the bottom: Control your hands! The truly worth testing position is around 326, and you should wait for a clear bottom divergence or a strong bullish candle on the daily chart.
Remember: under the resonance of the 'strong sell' indicator, any rebound is an opportunity to reposition, not an invitation to charge forward.
Every major bearish anomaly is a prelude to a market reversal. I am Zhao Gongming, focused on capturing turning point signals from capital and news. If you don’t want to be the last to know, follow Zhao Gongming. I will interpret the changes in large positions in the chat room in real time and prepare for the next potential coin to start. #亚洲家族办公室加密资产配置 #巨鲸动向
