Bitcoin must hold the $81.5K TMMP level to signal investor strength.
AVIV between 0.8–0.9 reflects market stability and confidence.
Falling below TMMP with compressing AVIV suggests weakening conviction.
Bitcoin is hovering near a crucial level — the Trend Median Market Price (TMMP) of $81.5K. This price point is more than just another number on the chart; it’s a key psychological and structural level that could define the market’s short-term direction.
Analysts say that if Bitcoin remains above this TMMP level and the AVIV metric — a volatility indicator — stabilizes between 0.8 and 0.9, it signals something positive: investors are absorbing selling pressure and are confident enough to defend their cost basis. In simpler terms, they’re not rushing to sell.
This behavior is often seen in strong bull markets where holders firmly believe in future upside and aren’t shaken by short-term price action. The consolidation at this level also indicates that large holders or institutions might be accumulating Bitcoin quietly.
What Happens If Bitcoin Falls Below $81.5K?
However, the outlook changes if Bitcoin dips below the $81.5K mark and AVIV continues to compress. Lower AVIV means reduced volatility, and when combined with falling prices, it’s often a warning sign. This scenario implies that profitability is diminishing — and with it, investor confidence.
When this kind of behavior is seen in the market, it suggests participants are no longer as willing to hold through potential drawdowns. Instead of buying dips, some may start exiting positions, which can create a feedback loop that accelerates downward pressure.
Who’s Still Willing to Hold?
“If Bitcoin holds above the TMMP ($81.5K) while AVIV stabilizes (0.8-0.9), it suggests investors are absorbing supply and defending their cost basis.
If price loses TMMP and AVIV continues to compress, it means profitability is fading, and… pic.twitter.com/XStWnGlXty
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 17, 2025
Confidence Is the Market’s Foundation
Metrics like TMMP and AVIV help us understand more than just price — they reflect sentiment. Right now, Bitcoin is at a key point where either strong hands continue to support the price or a loss of confidence begins to take hold.
Whether Bitcoin breaks higher or slips lower, watching these metrics can offer valuable clues about the psychology of the market. For now, the eyes are on $81.5K — a level that could make or break short-term momentum.
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