BITCOIN IS AT A "DECISION POINT" OF THE ENTIRE CYCLE
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around the True Market Mean Price (TMMP) – the average on-chain cost price of real investors (excluding miners). This price range has played a key role in all previous major cycles.
📍 TMMP is currently around $81,500
History shows:
BTC > TMMP → corrections are often bought up
BTC < TMMP → rebounds are often sold down
The second chart adds perspective from the AVIV Ratio – an indicator measuring the profitability and positioning of investors. The current AVIV is similar to accumulation phases between cycles, not at a peak, nor at a collapse phase.
👉 This implies:
This is not a panic sell-off
This is a profit reset process
The market is testing confidence, not breaking the trend
🔎 Important scenarios ahead
Holding above $81.5K → investors protect the cost price, the medium-term trend remains intact
Losing $81.5K → the market may need more time to find a lower demand zone
In other words, Bitcoin is at a crossroads, and the coming weeks will be very important to confirm the direction of the cycle.
