MacTong MSX Research Institute's view: Employment data dominates policy expectations, U.S. stock futures fluctuate, and the cryptocurrency market faces short-term pressure.

On December 17, the U.S. November non-farm employment data became a key variable affecting the U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets, with its characteristics of 'soft but not sharply deteriorating' directly adjusting market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, leading to divergent trends in the two markets.

In the U.S. stock futures market, the S&P 500 index futures and Nasdaq 100 index futures both rose slightly by 0.1%, maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations and stabilization. The core logic is that in November, non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% (the highest since 2021). Although this indicates a cooling labor market, compared to the contraction of 105,000 in October due to the government shutdown, there are no signs of a collapse in the data. This situation has prompted traders to reduce bets on a recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve, avoiding significant volatility in risk assets. The current market focus has shifted to the upcoming inflation data, and in the short term, U.S. stock futures will continue to be in a state of policy expectation observation, likely maintaining a pattern of fluctuations and consolidation, waiting for clear policy path guidance.

The cryptocurrency market showed weak performance, with Bitcoin falling 1.2% to $86,679.95 and Ethereum dropping 0.5% to $2,935.74. On one hand, the cooling of expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut has strengthened the U.S. dollar index, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.17%, putting valuation pressure on dollar-denominated crypto assets; on the other hand, amid escalating geopolitical tensions, safe-haven funds are more inclined to flow into traditional precious metals like gold and silver, while crypto assets have failed to demonstrate safe-haven properties, facing pressure from capital diversion.

Subsequent monitoring is needed on the changes in policy expectations following the inflation data release, which will continue to dominate the short-term direction of the cryptocurrency market.

Major event on the evening of December 17

Important information

Nasdaq announced it will officially submit application documents to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), planning to add a trading session outside the existing pre-market, regular, and after-hours trading periods, extending from the current 16 hours over five trading days to 23 hours.

Trump fully blocks sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, demanding that oil and other assets be 'returned to the U.S.'.

Europe relaxes internal combustion engine ban to help the struggling automotive industry.

Spot silver has first broken through $66 per ounce.

Morgan Stanley: Gold is expected to continue to receive macro-level support, potentially rising to $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026.

U.S. National Economic Council Director Hassett: Trump is disappointed with the Federal Reserve's displayed partisanship.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bostic: Speculation on the Federal Reserve chair candidate will be announced in early January.

In November, the U.S. adjusted non-farm payrolls recorded a gain of 64,000, higher than expected. Non-farm employment in October decreased by 105,000, while the market expected a decrease of 25,000. The U.S. unemployment rate in November recorded 4.6%, the highest in four years.

ADP Weekly Employment Report: In the four weeks ending November 29, private sector employers added an average of 16,250 jobs per week.

Federal Reserve - Bostic: Speculation on the Federal Reserve chair candidate will be announced in early January. U.S. media: Waller will be interviewed by Trump on Wednesday. After the report was released, the market predicted that the probability of Waller becoming a candidate for the Federal Reserve chair was raised to 15%. Bostic (near retirement): Hoped to maintain interest rates in December, did not include any rate cuts in next year's forecast.

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