Brothers, last night's non-farm payroll data was favorable. Why can't Bitcoin rise?
Recently, there have been interest rate cuts and hikes, but the market hasn't seen any significant fluctuations.
Is the big player dumb? Or is the market software broken? No, no, no.
It's not that, the truth is one sentence: It's not that the news is weak, it's that the market has long been 'numb'.
This matter was 'spoiled' and traded in advance! It's just like a blockbuster film.
The pirated resources have long been flying around before the release. When the release day actually comes, who is still eager to go to the cinema?
The current market is in this state. When will the Federal Reserve cut rates, and by how much? When will life turn around?
The answers to these 'test questions' have long been stripped bare by various analysts, traders, and media.
Before the official announcement of the news, the market has already been trading back and forth several rounds.
Therefore, what we see is a kind of calm reminiscent of 'sage time':
Good news materializing? That's called 'expectations being fulfilled'. Funds that set up early are happily clicking 'sell'.
Taking profits is the safest option. Without new foolish money coming in to take over, prices naturally won't rise.
Bad news comes out? That's called 'bad news fully priced in'. The people who should be scared have already cut losses and fled a few days ago.
The rest are either 'iron-headed kids' or bottom fishers, and they can't push the market down; there is still some capital supporting underneath.
The result is that the market enters a 'garbage time' of high not achieving and low not being met.
Prices are oscillating within a box, with volatility so low it makes people yawn.
At this moment, the fluctuations are purely short-term funds stabbing each other.
Playing a zero-sum game has nothing to do with long-term trends or grand narratives.
So the question arises, what exactly can determine whether the market really surges up or plummets down?
The core is three words: new! money!
The essence of market fluctuations is not fundamentally about which news headlines are more frightening.
Instead, it depends on whether there is sustained, real incremental capital willing to enter the market and stay.
For example: after interest rates are cut, has any 'long-lived money' like pension funds or university endowments come in to allocate Bitcoin?
Currently, not much.
For example: there are more long-term value investors in the market who haven't moved for years.
Are there more speculators who trade and run? — No need to ask, the latter accounts for the majority.
Also, for example: when good news comes out, did the people who made money before run away, and are there enough new entrants to take over?
Clearly weak, in a transition phase.
So the answer is clear: in the current market, it's all smart money looking to enter and exit quickly, lacking the 'foolish' capital that can hold the fort.
This explains why the market looks like it wants to break through but always falls back, looks like it's about to crash but never fully collapses.
Both bulls and bears are evenly matched, waiting for the other to gasp first, or waiting for an external 'fresh force' to break the balance.
In this environment, the most dangerous thing is not the technical breakdown, but a kind of thinking trap: trading based on news headlines.
There will always be folks thinking: 'Interest rates have been cut, good news! All-in!' 'Japan has raised interest rates, bad news! Run!'
This is simply sending the market's main players to their doom. In a market where expectations have been fully digested,
This operation is a typical 'chasing highs and killing lows 2.0 version', perfectly becoming the target of being harvested.
Your emotional fluctuations are precisely the source of profits for them to sell high and buy low.
So, how long will this frustrating volatility continue?
Simply put, the market is waiting for an 'unexpected' variable. This variable must meet two conditions:
1. Everyone didn't really anticipate it, and 2. The impact is significant. For example:
1. Real big money enters: a country's sovereign fund suddenly announces buying Bitcoin, or several trillion-dollar tech companies convert their treasury funds into cryptocurrency.
2. Macro script reversal: suddenly beautiful economic data explodes, proving that interest rates must be cut faster; or inflation explodes again, raising interest rate expectations.
2. Market sentiment is extreme:
Everyone is so desperate they dare not check their accounts, or everyone is so greedy they feel they can get rich overnight.
Technical violence chooses a direction: Bitcoin suddenly breaks through the oscillation range on high volume, or breaks down through the lower edge on high volume.
Before this 'new variable' appears, the market is likely to continue this 'grinding'.
There are a lot of trapped positions and profit-taking positions above, making it hard to rise.
There are also some faith-based funds and long-term moving averages supporting from below, making it difficult to drop.
The market will feel like lukewarm water, slowly wearing down everyone's patience, washing away those uncertain chips.
