In the winter of 2016, I finished every drop of the instant noodle soup in the Handshake Building in the urban village of Guangzhou. My bank card balance was 183.91 RMB, and I stared at the menu of the fast-food restaurant downstairs where the barbecued pork rice was 15 RMB, swallowing saliva for three days—not because I couldn't afford it, but because I was afraid that if I finished this meal, I would have to rely on tap water to fill my stomach for the next meal. I endured this kind of life, where even breathing was calculated, for a whole year and a half.
Eight years later, I stood in front of the floor-to-ceiling windows of Shenzhen Bay, staring blankly at the yacht fleet below. When the number in my account jumped to over 24 million, my first reaction was to send a red envelope to the boss who sold me instant noodles back then—not to flaunt wealth, but because the sleepless nights and tears from liquidating positions hidden in that money were hotter than any motivational talk. Today, let's not talk about the abstract; I will share with you the four survival rules I hammered out with real money.
1. The big player's 'baiting tactic' is even more fake than a rogue's sweet talk.
When I first entered the industry, I was a standard 'newbie'. In 2017, I saw a certain altcoin triple in three days, my eyes turned red, and I pooled all my savings to chase it. As a result, I was just getting in when I was pressed to the ground and rubbed, and within a week, I was completely wiped out, with not even enough left to add a sausage to my instant noodles.
Later, I broke down the candlestick charts from that period into fragments and figured out the 'selling code' of the big players: a short-term surge of over 30%, followed by three days of grinding at a high position, and then suddenly a volume spike followed by a 15% drop—this is not 'pullback consolidation,' but the big players clearing out and fleeing! Last year, when a certain public chain token surged to $150, this tactic was perfectly replicated. I decisively reduced my position and counter-traded, netting over 800,000 in three weeks, finally doubling back the money I lost back then.
Remember: the busier the market, the tighter you should hold your wallet. Those promotions about 'missing out and hitting your thigh' are all traps tailored for the inexperienced.
2. High positions are 'quiet', which can be more deadly than a crash
In 2019, I made an even more foolish mistake: I heavily invested in a mainstream cryptocurrency that had been flat for two months, and at that time the trading volume had almost shrunk to a line. I still foolishly thought, 'It's stable,' but it directly dropped to $12, and my account instantly shrank by 80%. That day, I smashed my keyboard.
Now I have long engraved 'Beware of dead silence at high positions' into my DNA: as long as a certain token's turnover rate is below 2% and the price deviates from the 20-day moving average by more than 20%, don't hesitate, this is a signal of capital withdrawal. My trading system will automatically trigger an alert. Last year, a popular token had this situation, and I exited in advance, avoiding the subsequent 'halving then halving again'. The brothers in the group who didn't leave are still 'eating instant noodles in the dark'.
The true bottom always means 'volume speaks first'
During the '3·12' crash in 2020, I thought the opportunity to bottom was here, and I went all in on a cross-chain concept token, but ended up buying in halfway up the mountain and was stuck for over half a year. To understand 'what exactly is the true bottom', I reviewed over 300 historical cases and finally summarized the rule: it must be 'a period of low volume consolidation followed by three consecutive days of gentle increasing volume'—this is the signal of capital sneaking in, more reliable than any 'big shot's call'.
Last year, when Bitcoin dropped to $25,000, this signal appeared. I decisively increased my position, and six months later, when it rose to $42,000, I cleared my holdings, just enough for the down payment on my current riverside apartment. Now every time I see the candlestick chart of that token, I am grateful I wasn't lazy back then, otherwise, I might still be fighting for territory in an urban village with rats.
Volume is the heart, position is the breath, don't gamble your life on ups and downs.
Having been in this market for a long time, I summed up two 'life-saving maxims': First, 'The candlestick is a story drawn out, and the trading volume reveals the heartbeat that cannot be hidden'—all false trends will expose themselves in the volume; second, 'Always operate with half your position, and you will never be out of the game.'
Last year, a certain animal-themed token exploded in popularity, and everyone in the group was shouting 'FOMO'. I held back my impulse until it broke through the consolidation range and the volume surged five times before I entered with a small position. As soon as its trend line broke, I immediately took profits and exited. Although I only made 12 times my investment and didn't get the last bite of meat, I perfectly avoided the subsequent 'zeroing crash'. Those who chased high are now too scared to log into their accounts.
