Bitcoin is hovering around a level that carries far more weight than a simple price tag. Analysts are increasingly focused on a zone known as the True Market Mean Price (TMMP), which represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of non-mining investors. According to CryptoQuant, this level—currently near $81,500—has evolved into both a psychological and structural fault line for the market.
At its core, TMMP measures conviction. It reveals whether buyers are willing to absorb supply during uncertainty or whether confidence is starting to fracture as investors approach their break-even point.
A Market at a Standoff
On-chain data suggests Bitcoin is experiencing mid-cycle stress. Technical resistance continues to limit upside momentum, and analysts are increasingly split on what comes next. The market now appears locked in a tense balance between two forces: long-term holders attempting to defend their cost basis and sellers who are increasingly prepared to exit at breakeven.
In this environment, TMMP has become Bitcoin’s line in the sand. More than a technical indicator, it functions as a collective psychological anchor—the average price at which most investors entered the market. When Bitcoin trades near this level, holders face a defining choice: endure uncertainty or sell without a loss. That decision point often amplifies pressure and precedes major directional moves.
CryptoQuant analyst Moreno identifies $81,500 as the current TMMP, describing it as the level where the bulk of real capital entered the market. Historically, prices holding above this zone have encouraged accumulation and dip-buying. When lost, however, the same level often flips into resistance as investors use rallies to exit near their average entry price.
“When BTC trades above it, investors are generally comfortable,” Moreno noted. “When price loses it, that same level often flips into resistance, as people who bought near the average cost use rallies to exit.”
This familiar dynamic now appears to be playing out again.
Lessons From Past Cycles
Previous market cycles highlight the importance of this zone. During the 2020–2021 bull run, TMMP repeatedly acted as support. In 2022, as confidence deteriorated, it became resistance. Whether $81,500 serves as support or resistance in the coming weeks may determine Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Adding further depth to the analysis is the AVIV Ratio, an on-chain metric comparing active market valuation with realized valuation, with a focus on investor profitability. Unlike momentum indicators, AVIV reflects sentiment grounded in realized gains and losses.
Currently, AVIV is compressing toward the 0.8–0.9 range—a zone historically associated with mid-cycle transitions. These periods are typically marked by stagnation rather than sharp collapses or strong trends.
“If Bitcoin holds above the TMMP while AVIV stabilizes around 0.8–0.9, it suggests investors are absorbing supply and defending their cost basis,” Moreno explained. “If price loses TMMP and AVIV continues to compress, it signals fading profitability and weakening confidence.”
Such conditions tend to pressure weaker hands not through dramatic drawdowns, but through prolonged sideways movement. As unrealized profits shrink, conviction is quietly tested, setting the stage for either renewed accumulation or a deeper search for demand.
Technical Resistance and Macro Anxiety
Price action has done little to ease uncertainty. Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to reclaim its yearly open, reinforcing hesitation among momentum traders and technically driven investors. This inability to break higher has strengthened the perception that upside remains capped for now.
The technical stalemate reflects a deeper ideological divide within the market. Veteran holders—many shaped by the 2021 peak and subsequent 70% drawdown—appear increasingly sensitive to technical signals and cycle-based models.
“Why is Bitcoin not pumping?” analyst PlanB asked rhetorically. “Because 50% is selling—OGs traumatized by 2021, technical investors watching RSI, four-year cycle believers expecting a post-halving bear—while the other 50% is buying: fundamentals-focused investors, TradFi, banks. It’s an epic battle until sellers run out of ammo.”
Institutional and traditional finance participants, by contrast, seem less focused on short-term cycles. Their steady accumulation has helped absorb supply, but not yet enough to push Bitcoin decisively out of its range.
Uncertainty intensified further when macro analyst Luke Gromen revealed he sold the majority of his Bitcoin holdings near $95,000. Speaking on Swan Bitcoin’s No Second Best podcast, Gromen cited long-term technical deterioration and broader systemic risks. He pointed to weakening momentum, Bitcoin’s inability to make new highs versus gold, and concerns about market fragility heading into 2026.
While Swan’s hosts challenged his conclusions, the disclosure itself resonated with investors already watching conviction erode near a key support level. High-profile exits tend to carry disproportionate psychological impact, especially when prices are compressing and on-chain data points to declining profitability.
Will Conviction Hold?
Bitcoin now finds itself at a crossroads defined less by narrative hype and more by resolve. Holding above $81,500 while AVIV stabilizes would signal that investors remain willing to defend their cost basis—a necessary condition for trend continuation.
A failure to do so could prove costly. A decisive break below TMMP, accompanied by further AVIV compression, would suggest that belief alone is no longer sufficient. In that scenario, the market may be forced to search for demand at lower levels.
