US10Y is knocking on the door. Crypto is holding its breath.

The US 10-Year Treasury Yield is moving toward a major resistance zone around 4.6–4.7%. This level has quietly controlled risk markets for months — and crypto traders know why.

If yields touch this resistance and get rejected, it signals that rates may have peaked. Liquidity pressure eases, the dollar cools down, and crypto finally gets room to breathe. This is where Bitcoin stabilizes and altcoins attempt relief moves.

But if yields break above and hold, the message is brutal: higher rates for longer. Risk-free returns become more attractive, liquidity tightens further, and crypto feels the weight. In this scenario, rallies fade fast and downside tests become likely.

This isn’t about headlines.

It’s about where capital feels safe.

Right now, US10Y is at a decision point — and crypto is reacting before the decision is made.

Watch the reaction, not the hope.