The TON currency has seen a significant improvement over the last twenty-four hours, recording a moderate increase in its value of about 2.6%, trading near the level of 1.53, with its market value reaching approximately 3.77 billion.
➤ This positive move has reignited the debate about the currency's ability to regain the lost upward momentum.
▣ Supportive developments but...
One of the recent developments within the TON ecosystem represents a strategic step aimed at enhancing operational infrastructure and facilitating financial flows across multiple areas.
✦ This development has given the market a limited psychological boost, but its impact is still confined within a narrow range.
The most important question remains:
Is this support enough to push TON to higher levels?
✦ Multi-timeframe technical reading
▣ The daily timeframe
On the daily chart, the overall trend remains bearish, as evidenced by the sharp decline from the 2.16 level down to 1.45.
➤ The price attempted to change its internal structure towards rising, but failed at the imbalance area between 1.6 – 1.7, which represents a strong supply barrier.
Despite this weakness:
The A/D indicator has risen slightly, reflecting a limited advantage for buyers in the short term.
The RSI indicator remains below the neutral level, indicating continued selling pressure.
The Stochastic RSI has shown additional weakness in momentum.
✖ Summary: Momentum still leans in favor of sellers.
If the price successfully surpasses 1.7, it may open the door to testing important correction areas near 1.89 and then 2.01.
▣ The short-term timeframe
On the hourly chart, a short-term supply area has emerged between 1.56 – 1.58.
✦ Despite some positive signals on the buying front, the price has hit a clear resistance ceiling.
➤ Control remains in the hands of sellers, both in the near term and the longer term.
✦ Bullish scenario: a weak but existing possibility
The least likely positive scenario is: ▣ A clear and stable breakout of the 1.7 area
▣ Increasing bullish momentum
▣ New liquidity entering the market
Only in this case, reaching the 2 level may become possible.
▣ Warning for traders
Liquidity data indicates a dense accumulation of sell positions around the 1.7 level.
✖ This area may turn into a price trap, as the price is likely to experience a temporary bounce before resuming the decline.
➤ Any rise towards this area may represent a distribution opportunity rather than the beginning of a new upward trend.
✦ Final summary
In light of:
The bearish structure on the daily timeframe
Absence of strong and sustainable demand
Weak general market sentiment
It seems that TON is closer to facing price rejection at the 1.7 level, rather than achieving a breakout.
The stable expectation is towards 2.
▣ The cautious trend remains the closest scenario at this stage.
