There is still an intense debate among analysts, but the cryptocurrency market in December 2025 is emitting mixed signals suggesting a critical transition or a deep mid-cycle correction, rather than a definitive and prolonged "bear market" like the previous ones.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high above 125 thousand dollars in October 2025 and has since experienced a drop of approximately 30-36%, even touching the 80 thousand mark.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to the "Fear" zone (25 points) in December, reflecting the exit of retail investors.
Institutions like Coinbase and Itaú BBA have warned that the price has fallen below important moving averages, which technically characterizes a bearish structure. However, many institutional analysts, like those from JPMorgan, believe that there has not been a structural change that justifies a multi-year bear market.
Unlike past cycles, the support now comes from ETFs, corporate treasuries (which hold 8% of the supply), and even strategic government reserves in the USA.
The recent decline is attributed more to uncertainty about the Fed's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions than to internal problems of the crypto ecosystem.
Some managers, like 21Shares, predict that the market for ETPs (Exchange Traded Products) in crypto will jump to 400 billion dollars by 2026, indicating that the long-term trajectory is still bullish.
The current consensus is that the 4-year cycle (based on the Halving) may be 'broken' or becoming smoother due to the entry of large institutions. If Bitcoin can maintain support above 80 thousand, many see this moment as an accumulation opportunity before a new peak in 2026. If it loses that level, the cyclical 'bear market' may consolidate.
