CPI Event Impact on Gold (XAUUSDT)
Event Timing: Tomorrow at 20:30 (US data)
Key Data:
Core CPI (MoM) – prev 0.2%
Core CPI (YoY) – prev 3.0%
Initial Jobless Claims – prev 236K
Continuing Claims – prev 1.838M
Implication: Gold’s direction is highly sensitive to CPI and labor data, which affect USD strength and inflation expectations.
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Current Gold Market Structure
Price: ~4322
Compression under recent highs → potential for breakout
Bollinger bands tightening → likely expansion soon
Market waiting for macro confirmation
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Bullish Scenario (Gold Up)
Triggers:
Core CPI ≤ 0.2%
Jobless Claims > 236K
Market Reaction:
USD weakens → Gold rises
Gold bids on inflation cooling + risk hedge
Upside Levels:
Resistance 1: 4335 – 4345
Resistance 2: 4375 – 4390
Extension: 4410+ (liquidity pocket)
Fib Reference:
Hold above 4305 = 0.618 retrace respected
Acceptance above 4345 = bullish continuation
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Bearish Scenario (Gold Down)
Triggers:
Core CPI > 0.2%
Jobless Claims < 236K
Market Reaction:
USD strengthens → Gold sells off
Rates pressure gold
Downside Levels:
Support 1: 4305 – 4295
Support 2: 4275 – 4265
Breakdown zone: 4235 – 4215
Fib Reference:
Loss of 0.5 retrace → momentum shift
Failure below 4295 → deeper rotation likely
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Trading Notes
Expect liquidity spikes at data release → first candle can be noisy
Confirm direction with M15 close + acceptance
Avoid chasing tops or guessing bottoms
