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[Ended] 🎙️ MARKET IS PLAYING WITH OUR EMOTIONS

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India Pushes Tokenization Bill for Middle-Class Asset Access India is advancing a legislative proposal that would legalize tokenization of real-world assets, allowing digital tokens to represent fractional ownership in real estate, infrastructure, and other high-value assets. The framework is designed to open markets that were historically out of reach for middle-class investors. By enabling broker-free, near-instant settlement, the bill could offer higher yield opportunities compared with traditional savings products, fixed deposits, and many mutual funds. Key implications: Middle-class investors gain access to fractional ownership of large assets Improved liquidity for traditionally illiquid markets like real estate and infrastructure Clear regulatory structure aimed at attracting foreign capital from Singapore, the UAE, and Hong Kong Increased pressure on banks and traditional financial institutions to innovate If enacted, the bill could position India as a leading hub for regulated asset tokenization, accelerating crypto adoption while reshaping how capital flows through domestic markets.

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Kalshi & Polymarket Dominate Prediction Markets With ~99% Share Prediction markets are entering a rapid growth phase. Industry forecasts suggest total volume could surge ~400%, from roughly $9B in 2024 to $40B in 2025, while active users expand from ~4M to 15M. Nearly all of that activity is being captured by two platforms. Kalshi and Polymarket together control about 99% of prediction market volume, effectively forming a duopoly in a fast-scaling sector. Their strategies are diverging: Kalshi has leveraged its Robinhood partnership to cement leadership in the U.S. retail market, focusing on accessibility, regulatory alignment, and high-frequency retail flow. Polymarket is increasingly positioning itself as an institutional data and derivatives platform, emphasizing deeper analytics, market signaling, and sophisticated products. Implications: High barriers to entry for new competitors Liquidity concentration benefits traders via tighter spreads and better pricing Ecosystem development may split between retail-scale markets and institutional-grade prediction infrastructure As volume accelerates, the Kalshi–Polymarket split is likely to shape how prediction markets evolve, with retail dominance on one side and institutional sophistication on the other.

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Shima Capital Quietly Shuts Down A once-prominent crypto venture firm from the 2021 cycle is quietly winding down. Shima Capital is reportedly shutting its doors after the SEC filed a complaint against the firm and its founder Yida Gao, alleging investor fraud. Sources say Gao emailed portfolio founders informing them he is stepping down and closing the fund, apologizing for his decisions and acknowledging that he let investors and partners down. Shima Capital launched in 2021 with a reported $200M fund and backed notable projects including Berachain, Monad, Pudgy Penguins, and others. In prior public interviews, Gao had emphasized a strong focus on SEC compliance. Regulators allege a different reality. According to reports, the SEC complaint cites undisclosed offshore entities and exaggerated return figures used in marketing materials. Bloomberg Law reports that Gao agreed to pay approximately $4M shortly after the suit was filed to resolve the matter. Once viewed as a rising star in crypto venture capital, Shima Capital’s shutdown highlights how quickly last cycle’s VC narratives are unraveling as regulatory scrutiny intensifies.

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Bitcoin Slips Below 86k USDT, 2.13% Intraday Drop Bitcoin fell below the 86,000 USDT level, trading around 86,148 USDT with a 2.13% intraday decline on Bitget. The break adds short-term bearish pressure, with liquidity tightening across spot and derivatives markets. Traders watching this zone may see stop-losses triggered, increasing volatility, while sentiment remains sensitive ahead of upcoming macro catalysts. What to watch: Volume and order-book depth for signs of stabilization Whether BTC can reclaim 86k as support Spillover impact on derivatives funding and open interest The next few sessions should clarify whether this move is a brief shakeout or the start of a deeper pullback. $BTC

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Ethereum Slides Below $2,800 USDT as Market Weakens Ethereum fell under the $2,800 USDT level, posting a 5.5% intraday drop and signaling growing short-term bearish pressure across major exchanges. The break of this psychological level likely triggered stop-loss acceleration, adding to downside momentum. For larger players, the move may prompt portfolio rebalancing, while ETH-denominated DeFi positions now face a narrower safety margin, increasing liquidation risk in leveraged protocols. Key things to watch: Whether ETH can reclaim and hold $2,800 Liquidation data across major lending platforms Impact on $ETH futures funding and options skew Failure to recover the level could reinforce negative momentum and weigh on broader market sentiment through the rest of the session.

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