😹 Only “$BTC to $0” Left? The Japan Rate Hike Madness 😹
Japan’s interest rate hike is everywhere right now and it feels like we’re running out of bearish ideas. Red arrows, old crash screenshots, and now the final narative is “BTC to zero.” I dont buy it. I already posted about this hike two days ago and the move matched almost perfectly. Now before panic spread more, here’s what really matters.
Those historical crashes people keep posting didn’t happen just because Japan hiked rates. That’s a convinient story. Back then BTC was overheated — leverage crowded, funding stretched, OI bloated. Japan was only the trigger, not the cause. Context matters.
Today the setup is different. BTC already dropped from around $126k to $80k. That move flushed most reckless leverage. What’s left now is early positioning and some mid or low leverage traders. This is not the same fragile market people are trying to compare with.
Yes, Japan’s hike creates fear and yen uncertainty. That panic already showed up with a quick move from ~$89k to ~$85k. But notice there was no follow through dump. That was fear pricing, not real distribution.
The real short term trigger is CPI. The day before CPI matters more than a small BOJ move. If CPI comes cooler, US rate expectations override Japan fear. Only a hot CPI changes the downside picture.
Now the math. BTC around ~$87.5k. A “27% crash” from here means ~$63k. After a -36% drop already done, that needs fresh leverage, big ETF outflows and a real macro shock. None of that is confirmed.
Realistic downside if panic spikes again is ~$83k–80k. An extreme wick could touch high $70k. Below that needs new damage, not recycled fear.
Risk is real, but when the only narative left is “BTC to $0,” it usually says more about sentiment than price. Logic over emotion, always.
