This is not a small miss. This is a big deal.
U.S. unemployment just climbed to 4.6%, higher than the 4.5% expected, marking the highest level since September 2021 📉
That single number sends a very uncomfortable message to the Federal Reserve.
💥 The labor market is now weaker than it’s been in four years.
Momentum is fading. Growth is slowing.
But here’s the real problem 👇
Inflation is still hovering around 3%, far above the Fed’s 2% target.
⚠️ This is the Fed’s worst possible setup.
Slowing growth + stubborn inflation = stagflation.
And stagflation gives policymakers no good options.
🟥 If the Fed holds rates high
A weakening labor market + tight financial conditions could snowball into a recession.
🟩 If the Fed cuts rates too soon
Inflation risks reigniting all over again.
We’ve already seen this movie 🎬
• In 2020, the Fed cut aggressively
• In 2021, inflation exploded
• In 2022, they slammed the brakes with rate hikes and QT
Now? The Fed is stuck between those same two mistakes.
That’s why today’s unemployment data matters so much 🧠
The Fed was broadly expected not to cut rates in January.
This data puts serious pressure on that plan.
Ignore it ➝ recession risk rises
React too fast ➝ inflation comes roaring back
📚 History is also flashing a warning.
In the 1970s, the U.S. faced rising inflation, rising unemployment, and stagnant growth.
The Fed eventually hiked rates to nearly 20% to kill inflation 💣
Inflation died—but at a cost.
From 1970 to 1980, the S&P 500 delivered 0% returns.
Today’s situation isn’t that extreme—but the setup rhymes.
📌 The Fed still has to fight inflation.
That likely means pain first… then opportunity.
If the Fed prioritizes inflation control, expect:
➡️ A sharp downturn
➡️ Followed by a powerful recovery 🚀
I don’t believe the Fed will repeat the 1970s playbook.
That’s why more easing looks likely in 2026.
And what comes after that?
💡 That part is already obvious to those paying attention.
Stay sharp. The data is talking.
#USNonFarmPayrollReport #USJobsData #CPIWatch #BinanceBlockchainWeek #WriteToEarnUpgrade 
