“BTC to zero” talk is overblown
Japan’s rate hike is being blamed for every dip, but it’s only the catalyst. At the time, BTC was overheated, heavily leveraged, and funding was stretched—Japan lit the match, it wasn’t the underlying problem.
The setup today is very different. BTC already corrected from around $126K to $80K, clearing out excess leverage. What’s left are earlier-stage positions and more controlled leverage.
The latest panic pushed BTC from roughly $89K to $85K before stalling—classic fear-driven pricing, not sustained selling. The near-term focus is CPI; a softer print would matter far more than Japan’s move.
At a current price near $87.5K, a 27% drawdown to ~$63K would require new leverage buildup, heavy ETF outflows, and a major macro shock—none of which are currently showing.
More realistic downside sits around $83K–$80K. In an extreme scenario, a quick wick into the high $70K range is possible, but anything lower would need fresh negative catalysts, not recycled fear.
When the loudest narrative becomes “BTC to zero,” it says more about sentiment than fundamentals. Trade with logic, not emotion.
#BTC #CPIWatch #FOMC #MarketSentiment
