Bluechip
--
Bitcoin's Path Forward*
I drew this sketch with a rough guess at the upcoming $BTC path.😅
*I expect this to be wrong, as the odds of guessing the market path this far into the future are nearly impossible.
But if someone said I had to make a guess right now, this would be it.
We can revisit this in 9 months and laugh about how wrong it was.
I see the upcoming relief rally in Q1 2026 (see top arrow in chart) as being the last time one can decently take profits before the bear market hits in full force.
🔸The Bright Side
If we're already in a bear market, then we're already 2 months in. This bear market may also be shorter than the typical 1-year bear market since the top wasn't a euphoric, blow-off top.
🔸 Economic factors
By the time the bottom has formed in mid-2026, we'll have a new Fed chair dropping interest rates rapidly, $2k stimmy checks from Trump (inflating the economy again), a PMI (business cycle) that is heading up more steeply, the next batch of QE. THEN we can get BTC beginning to head up in late 2026, as risk assets become more favorable in looser monetary conditions.
🔸The Future
I think the next BTC cycle will see nations competing to accumulate BTC, just as they've done with gold in the past.
We went from individuals competing to own as much BTC as possible in the first few cycles, to institutions and ETFs competing to own as much BTC as possible in the most recent cycle, and I think the next, natural evolutionary step is nations competing to own as much BTC as possible. This is how the market cap of BTC geometrically increases to the next level, taking the price up with it.
Each cycle sees BTC reaching further into society as global adoption increases. This the S-Curve of adoption at work (the adoption path followed by disruptive technologies).
This is how we will see a $500k-$1M BTC, eventually.
*I expect this to be wrong, as the odds of guessing the market path this far into the future are nearly impossible.
But if someone said I had to make a guess right now, this would be it.
We can revisit this in 9 months and laugh about how wrong it was.
I see the upcoming relief rally in Q1 2026 (see top arrow in chart) as being the last time one can decently take profits before the bear market hits in full force.
🔸The Bright Side
If we're already in a bear market, then we're already 2 months in. This bear market may also be shorter than the typical 1-year bear market since the top wasn't a euphoric, blow-off top.
🔸 Economic factors
By the time the bottom has formed in mid-2026, we'll have a new Fed chair dropping interest rates rapidly, $2k stimmy checks from Trump (inflating the economy again), a PMI (business cycle) that is heading up more steeply, the next batch of QE. THEN we can get BTC beginning to head up in late 2026, as risk assets become more favorable in looser monetary conditions.
🔸The Future
I think the next BTC cycle will see nations competing to accumulate BTC, just as they've done with gold in the past.
We went from individuals competing to own as much BTC as possible in the first few cycles, to institutions and ETFs competing to own as much BTC as possible in the most recent cycle, and I think the next, natural evolutionary step is nations competing to own as much BTC as possible. This is how the market cap of BTC geometrically increases to the next level, taking the price up with it.
Each cycle sees BTC reaching further into society as global adoption increases. This the S-Curve of adoption at work (the adoption path followed by disruptive technologies).
This is how we will see a $500k-$1M BTC, eventually.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.