It's 4 o'clock and I can't sleep. The last article talked about Japan's interest rate hike. Since October this year, the cryptocurrency market has gone through the largest liquidation in history. With a month and a half left in 2025, the United States, which dominates the market, is approaching Christmas. Personally, I would like to discuss where the market is headed.
Historically, the end of the year often sees a Christmas rally. On one hand, institutions begin to rebalance their annual assets, naturally replenishing underweighted risk assets.
On the other hand, liquidity tends to improve marginally at year-end, making it easier for additional buying pressure to be released. Under the influence of multiple positive factors, the success rate of a technical rebound is significantly higher than usual.
In the first quarter of 2026, which is the upcoming six-month period with the greatest potential for imagination, let me share my logic:
1: A consensus is forming around the expectation of a coordinated shift towards easing by global central banks.
2: The release of liquidity from the U.S. Treasury's TGA is causing funds to flow back into risk assets.
3: Institutions are repositioning for the new fiscal year, with both passive and active buying entering the market simultaneously.
This is not just a single favorable factor but an entire set of combined strategies. Once sentiment is ignited, Bitcoin is most likely to experience a significant upward trend during this phase.
Market movements never come suddenly; they reward those who have positioned themselves in advance. Therefore, cherish the opportunities brought by the decline in December and enter the market in batches with Bitcoin or Ethereum.
I am also significantly reducing my short positions and buying long positions.
