The End of the Four Year Myth: Why the 2026 Capitulation Starts Today

Bitcoin market cycles have historically followed a remarkably consistent four-year rhythm, characterized by three years of expansion followed by a grueling twelve-month corrective phase. Data from 2015 and 2018 perfectly validate this structural template, where parabolic growth inevitably surrendered to a systemic one-year bear market. As we approach the conclusion of 2025, the internal clock of the current cycle indicates that the three-year bullish regime which commenced in late 2022 has reached its point of exhaustion.

From a market analyst perspective, the macro indicators are shifting toward a defensive posture. The recent price action suggests that the period of easy gains has concluded, giving way to the anticipated one-year liquidity drain. While many participants remain blinded by the optimism of the previous months, the statistical probability of a prolonged drawdown is increasing. We are no longer discussing a temporary dip but rather the transition into a structural bear market. Survival in the coming year demands a departure from bullish bias and an acceptance that the path of least resistance is now downward.$BTC