The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is imminent, and the historical retracement pattern of BTC rings alarm bells.

The consensus in the market is that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on December 19, but the real key is whether this rate hike has already priced in expectations, stirring the flow of funds in the crypto market.

Looking back at the three rounds of rate hike cycles, Bitcoin's performance has been consistently sluggish: a retracement of about 24% in March 2024, a retracement of about 30% in July 2024, and a retracement of about 32% in January 2025. Once is a coincidence, three times is a market trend that cannot be ignored. Now, with the interest rate hike window approaching in December 2025, will history repeat itself?

The biggest risk in the current market has never been the interest rate hike news itself, but rather that many investors are convinced that “bad news has been fully priced in,” eagerly over-leveraging without adopting a prudent strategy of placing staggered orders based on key support levels.

The core difference between seasoned investors and newcomers has never been about betting on the direction of the market, but rather understanding not to go all in. Save some bullets, avoid being fully invested in speculation, survive first, and then wait for the real opportunity presented by the market.