#USNonFarmPayrollReport #USNonFarmPayrollReport

Macro Analysis and Fed Policy

📈 NFP Report November: A Mirage for the Fed?

The latest U.S. employment report presents a mixed picture. Non-farm payrolls rose by +64K in November, surpassing the forecast of +50K. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level since 2021.

🔍 Key Analysis:

· Noisy data: The drop of -105K in October and the downward revisions of previous months show a labor market weaker than expected.

· Message for the Fed: With moderate wage growth (+3.5% year-on-year) and rising unemployment, inflationary pressure from the labor market is moderating. This could give the Fed room to maintain a more flexible stance, although markets currently discount a new cut in January.

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