In recent days, the story of Japan raising interest rates has been prevalent on social media, to the point that the market seems to be… out of pessimistic ideas. From the red arrow, images of past crashes, to the most extreme narrative: “Bitcoin will go to 0”. Personally, I don't buy this story.

In fact, I mentioned the possibility of volatility around this event a few days ago, and the recent price movements almost matched the forecasted scenario. Before the fear spreads further, we need to look back at the true nature of the issue, rather than just sticking to sensational headlines.

📉 History Is Not Simple: 'Japan Raises Interest Rates = BTC Crashes'

The historical crashes that many compare did not happen just because Japan raised interest rates. At that time, the Bitcoin market was in a state of overheating:

  • Layered leverage

  • Funding rate tension

  • Open Interest swelling unusually

Japan only plays a catalytic role, not the root cause. Ignoring the context and only looking at the results is a very dangerous way to analyze.

🔍 The Current Context Is Completely Different

At this point, Bitcoin has sharply decreased from around ~126,000 USD to ~80,000 USD. That drop has removed most of the reckless leverage from the market.
What remains mainly is:

  • Early position

  • Traders using low to medium leverage

This is not a fragile market structure like past crashes that many are trying to compare.

😱 Fear Has Been Reflected In Prices

There is no denying that Japan's interest rate hikes have created concern and instability regarding the yen. That fear has been reflected quite quickly through the drop from about 89,000 USD to 85,000 USD.

The important point is: there is no continued selling pressure.
This resembles a pricing-in of fear, rather than a true distribution.

📊 Short-Term Decision Factors: CPI, Not BOJ

In the short term, the US CPI is the most important variable. Even the day before the CPI has a greater impact than any small decision from the BOJ.

  • CPI cools down → expectations of US interest rates overshadow fears from Japan

  • Hot CPI → at that point, the scenario of a deep drop really needs to be reconsidered

🧮 Recalculating the '27% Crash' Scenario

Bitcoin is around ~87,500 USD.
A '27% crash' from here is equivalent to around ~63,000 USD.

After the market has experienced a previous drop of ~36%, to continue falling this deep requires simultaneous convergence:

  • New leverage has been pumped in strongly

  • Large ETF outflows

  • A clear macro shock

Currently, none of those factors have been confirmed.

📌 A More Realistic Scenario

  • Reasonable decrease if panic returns: ~83,000 – 80,000 USD

  • Extreme scenario: a quick pullback to the high 70,000 USD range

  • Below that? → needs new damage, not old fears recycled

🧠 Conclusion

Risks always exist, but when the only remaining narrative in the market is 'BTC goes to 0', it is often a sign of sentiment, not price.

In trading and investing:
👉 Logic must always prevail over emotion.