#ETH走势分析 12 December 18 11:00 (China Time) ETH about $2,780, down about 5.6% for the day, with 24-hour liquidations concentrated, short-term bearish, medium-term support and institutional movements in view.
1. Core Market and Drivers
- Key Data: 24h high about $3,030, low about $2,780, market capitalization about $342 billion, spot trading volume down about 12% month-on-month.
- Main reasons for the decline: derivatives liquidation dominated, large-scale selling pressure from non-spot; year-end institutional position reduction, ETF fund outflows, perpetual funding rates neutral, strong wait-and-see sentiment.
- Fundamental Points: staking rate over 30%, deflation continues; BlackRock applied for staking ETH trust ETF, long-term logic unchanged.
2. Technical Analysis (Short/Medium/Long)
- Short-term (4h/Daily): moving averages in bearish arrangement, MACD death cross, RSI oversold, weak rebound possible; support at $2,700 (strong daily support), $2,775 (short-term dense trading); resistance at $2,950 (EMA15), $3,000 (psychological barrier).
- Medium-term (Weekly): lost the key level of $3,000, if $2,700 breaks, may test $2,650-$2,600; if it holds, will return to range oscillation.
- Long-term: staking and deflation support valuation, waiting for January 2026 capital inflow and ETF progress catalyst.
3. Trading Strategy (with Risk Control)
- Short-term operation: short at $2,920-$2,950 on rebound, stop loss at $2,980, target $2,850-$2,800; buy lightly on pullback at $2,720-$2,750, stop loss at $2,680, target $2,800-$2,850; contract position ≤**2%** of capital, stop loss must be included.
- Medium to long-term: liquidity tight at year-end, build positions in batches; below $2,700 can lay small positions, pause adding positions if it breaks $2,600, waiting for January capital inflow signals.
- Risk Warning: continuous ETF outflows, macro fluctuations, regulatory changes; small-cap liquidity risk is high, prioritize spot or low leverage.
Do you need me to create a monitoring list for key price levels and stop-loss/take-profit from December 19-21 (clear operations after each level is triggered), can you just execute it as instructed? Need to pay attention to Q1$ETH
