I’ve had a few people DM me asking why I don’t post many trades at CMP anymore, why I mostly use limit orders, and why my main focus has been a BTC short that I opened around 118k. I assume others are wondering the same thing, so here’s my thinking.
First, we’re in a bear market. There honestly isn’t much to do right now besides waiting.
“Then why aren’t you constantly shorting?”
I am. I’ve been holding a BTC short for about four months now. I warned many times that we were near the top and that upside would be limited. At this stage, I’m waiting for the type of opportunity I specialize in: buying near market bottoms.
Second, I believe we’re much closer to the end of the downside than the start. Most people only recognize market phases after they’ve already unfolded. The same thing happens in bull markets, and it’s happening again now. This bear market didn’t just begin—it’s been in place for months. In my view, the real bearish phase started around 99k, which I’ve mentioned repeatedly.
As I said in my latest BTC update, I’m watching the 72k level as major support. That’s where I plan to start adding spot positions, assuming we see a reaction there. If that level fails, we likely enter a broader accumulation range between 50k and 72k, and I expect price to chop in that zone for a long time before the next bull cycle begins.
Right now, I’m waiting on two key scenarios, both of which I’ve shared before:
BTC reclaiming 99k, which would give me a chance to add to shorts
A potential bottom forming around 72k
As for altcoins, they’re in rough shape. That can change, but until it does, trying to blindly buy is risky. Some alts may look cheap, but there’s still a real possibility of another 30% drop before a true bottom is established.
The takeaway is simple: protect your capital and stay patient. If you feel compelled to buy something now, keep your position size small in case the market moves against you.
I’ll continue sharing opportunities when they genuinely present themselves.
