The expectations of institutional investors and retail investors collided fiercely at the end of the year, rewriting the historical pattern of the "Christmas rally" in the crypto market.
In late December 2025, the cryptocurrency market once again ushered in the annual expectation period of the "Santa Claus rally", with investors focusing on the historically demonstrated seasonal increase window from December 24 to early January of the following year.
This seasonal phenomenon, originating from the traditional U.S. stock market, has also become the focus of attention in the crypto market in recent years. With institutional funds deeply involved and macroeconomic uncertainties intensifying, the debate about whether the "Santa Claus" will visit the crypto world as scheduled is exceptionally intense.
The "Christmas rally" in the crypto market has never been a certain event. Data from the last seven complete cycles since 2018 show that years of increase account for only 57%, and the average increase has been entirely lifted by the extreme performance of 46.15% during the 2020 bull market.
