"Bro, ETH has hit a new high again, should we jump in quickly?" As soon as I opened my eyes this morning, messages from three fans popped up. I looked at the K-line chart and smiled; this is not a new high, it's clearly the last revelry before the 'castle in the air' collapses.
After eight years in the circle, I can't say I can see through all the ups and downs of projects, but when it comes to ETH, I can confidently say 'it's clear as day.' From the bullish frenzy of 2017 to the black swan crash of 2020, I've stumbled and also made enough profit to lie flat for half a year; my trading notes have filled up three notebooks.
This wave of ETH's increase, to put it nicely, is a 'breakthrough trend', to put it bluntly, it's 'nonsense charging forward'. Just open the volume chart and you'll understand: when the price is soaring, the trading volume is actually decreasing, it's like a car with the accelerator pressed to the floor but with little fuel in the tank, it looks impressive but can't go far. A normal healthy increase should be 'volume and price rising together', with real money being pumped in, only then can the price stand firm; but now this kind of 'high without volume' is like a bubble that can burst with a poke.
Many beginner friends always think that 'a new high is an opportunity', blindly entering the market with a mindset of 'afraid of missing out', treating the market like a casino. Let me share a little trick for judgment: look at the effectiveness of the support level. This wave of increase directly bypassed the key consolidation zone from earlier, without even a decent pullback confirmation, just like a person running forward without stable footing, it's only a matter of time before they fall. My own strategy is clear: not only did I not increase my position, but I also took profits on some of my previous profitable positions, and I've set protective lines for the remaining positions, so even if there's a pullback, I'm not afraid of 'riding the roller coaster'.
Surely someone will ask: 'Can we short the market now?' My answer is 'it depends on the person'. For someone like me who does long-term trading, I prioritize risk control, setting the margin high enough so that even with short-term fluctuations, I won't be easily 'knocked out'; but if you are a newcomer just entering the market, don't blindly follow the trend, it's more important to set up your own trading system than anything else. There has never been a 'sure-win' trade in the market, only the survival rule of 'respecting the market'.
Finally, let's be practical: the upcoming trend of ETH will likely return to a reasonable support range. If you don't have a position right now, don't rush to 'buy the dip'; if you have a position, remember to set protection. I share my real-time judgments in the comment section every day, follow me@Square-Creator-0a44f19a1d7d9 #ETH走势分析 $BTC .
