When market sentiment shifts from greed to fear, each candlestick on the chart tells a real story of the game. This one-hour chart is not just a string of numbers, but a lifeline that determines the gains and losses of countless accounts.
As an analyst who has traded in the cryptocurrency market for many years, I've seen too many beautiful stories of 'V-shaped reversals', but today on this one-hour chart of SOL, I must speak the truth — the short-term bullish defense line is collapsing. When the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is broken and the MACD double lines are diverging below the zero axis, this is not a 'healthy pullback', but a clear signal that the bears have taken control of the market.
The market always quietly builds a top when voices are loud, and nurtures vitality when panic spreads. But at this moment, this chart is telling me: Don't rush to catch the bottom.
One, the latest technical chart in-depth interpretation: The balance between bulls and bears has been broken
Let us face the cold facts conveyed by this one-hour candlestick chart:
The Bollinger Bands (BOLL) have opened downwards:
Middle band (MID) $124.72, has turned from support to immediate resistance
Upper bound (UB) $130.17, this is the first strong resistance for the rebound
Lower bound (LB) $119.28, is a target that bears may test in the short term
Candlesticks are densely operating near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with a majority of red bearish candlesticks, which is a typical weak downward pattern. The price cannot effectively stay above the middle band, indicating that every rebound faces stronger selling.
The MACD indicator confirms the downward momentum:
DIF value -1.19, already deeply trapped below the zero axis
DEA value 1.17, also in the negative area
MACD histogram -0.04, although the absolute value is not large, the negative value indicates that the downward momentum is still ongoing
The most critical point is that DIF and DEA are operating below the zero axis, and DIF is lower than DEA, which is a standard signal for the continuation of the bearish trend. Any rebound without accompanying MACD bottom divergence is an opportunity for reducing positions rather than increasing them.
Two, latest key level reset and long-short conversion point
According to the latest chart, I must correct my previous support and resistance judgments:
Latest core resistance area:
$124.70-$125.00 (middle band of Bollinger Bands + psychological barrier) — The first life and death line of the day
$128.50-$130.20 (previous platform + upper band of Bollinger Bands) — Bulls must recover to reverse the hourly downtrend
Latest key support area:
$120.00-$119.30 (psychological integer + lower band of Bollinger Bands) — The first test target for bears
$117.00-$115.00 (previous important accumulation area) — If it breaks down, the downside space will open up
Currently, the price is hanging in the middle ground, but the technical balance has tilted towards the bears.
Three, my personal opinion and urgent strategy adjustment
I must admit that based on this one-hour chart, my short-term view has turned cautious and bearish.
This is not a denial of SOL's fundamentals but a necessary respect for short-term market risks. The chart shows that the decline is accompanied by a moderate increase in volume (the red candlestick body), which is more like active selling rather than panic selling, indicating that there may still be space for decline.
The latest advice for different traders:
Short-term traders: Immediately stop any 'counter-trend bottom fishing' actions. The only long opportunity to consider is if the price breaks through with volume and stabilizes above $125, and the MACD forms a golden cross. Otherwise, waiting or lightly shorting (with a stop loss at the breakout of $128.5) is a more rational choice.
For medium-term holders: If your position is heavy, the $124-$125 area is the last line of defense for reducing positions. Do not believe in the fantasy of an immediate rebound; protecting principal is always the top priority.
For those watching with no positions: Now is the time to test patience. The best buying point is not when the knife falls, but when downward momentum exhausts and the structure stabilizes again. Please pay close attention to two signals: 1) A long lower shadow appears at key support (like $119) with low volume; 2) MACD shows obvious bottom divergence.
Conclusion: Surviving in the market's gunfire
A true trader is not always right, but always respects the market and quickly corrects. This one-hour chart has already given us a clear warning. In a downtrend, the best action is often to do nothing.
Now is not the time for blind optimism, but for checking one's positions and reflecting on one's trading discipline. Surviving is the prerequisite for waiting for the next round of opportunities.
I am your trading partner in the real market, speaking directly and only telling the truth. Follow me, and I'll take you through bull and bear markets to see the essence of the market.
