When I read the Federal Reserve data at dawn, I was sitting in a friend's villa in Silicon Valley—he had just refinanced his house and went all in on NVIDIA call options. 'This time is different,' he said, swirling his glass of red wine, 'the AI revolution will drive up all assets.' I didn't say anything, remembering what my mentor said in 2000, 'the internet changes everything,' and then he lost that house with a view of the Golden Gate Bridge during the tech stock crash.
My phone vibrated, and @usddio's weekly report notification popped up: in the past seven days, the annualized yield of the stablecoin pool remained stable at 10.2%, and the value of on-chain collateral assets grew by 3.1%. Suddenly, I felt that in this era where everyone is betting 'this time is different,' the most rebellious investment might be to believe 'this time is the same.'
Historical third warning: When illusion becomes consensus, you need 'anti-gravity assets'
1968, 1999, now—every time stock wealth exceeds real estate, it is a prelude to a crash. Is this time really different? Look at these data:
Shiller CAPE Index historically the second highest
Top ten stocks account for more than 1929 Great Depression
A 52% share of passive funds means no one can escape during a crash
Why do I allocate 30% of my assets to USDD?
First, over-collateralization = the 'gravity anchor' that transcends cycles. Stocks may drop 50%, real estate may bubble, but the 130%+ on-chain collateral behind USDD acts as the ballast in the ship's hold. When the storm comes, what truly saves you is not how high you can fly, but how slowly you can sink.
Second, decentralization = escaping 'passive fund crashes'. 52% of stocks are controlled by passive funds, meaning once a turn happens, it’s indiscriminate selling. But USDD does not have 'index forced selling'; its value does not depend on Wall Street's algorithms, only on mathematically guaranteed collateral ratios.
Third, stable income = an antidote to 'wealth illusion'. When my neighbor boasts that his stock account has risen another 30%, my USDD pool silently compounds at an annualized 10%. I don’t need to believe 'this time is different'; I just need to trust that math doesn’t lie.
My 'Cassandra Investment Checklist'
Reduce holdings in overvalued tech stocks, shift to USDD stable pool (retain liquidity, abandon illusions)
Use USDD collateral to participate in government bond ETF arbitrage (earn 4-5% risk-free return)
Retain USDD as a 'crisis option': If the stock market crashes by 40%+, exchange to buy the dip
Monthly invest in USDD to build a 'non-correlated asset fortress'
In 2008, I worked at Lehman and witnessed how the belief that 'this time is different' collapsed. Now my former colleagues are saying the same thing, while my USDD position already generates monthly income covering basic living expenses for my family.
A friend asked me: 'Aren't you afraid of missing the AI bull market?' I showed him the USDD collateral asset panel: 'People in 1968 thought landing on the moon would change economic laws, and people in 1999 thought the internet would abolish cycles. I choose to believe in things that have been validated for 150 years: mean reversion and the value of over-collateralization.'
@usddio doesn't give me the illusion of 'wealth exceeding real estate', but provides me with certainty to sleep soundly during any crash. When everyone is reveling in front of the Trojan Horse, true wisdom is not predicting what’s inside the horse, but ensuring you are not in Troy.