Last night, just as the cryptocurrency market was starting to celebrate, it got doused with a bucket of cold water. A journalist known as the Federal Reserve's 'mouthpiece' announced that there is a high probability that interest rates will not be cut in January. As soon as the news broke, Bitcoin plummeted from 88,000 to 86,000, while the dollar index actually rose by 0.3%. Many people in the group shouted, 'It's over, the bull market is going to cool down.'
But I have to say something honest today: this is not bad news at all; it's clearly a signal for smart people to get on board! Those who are panicking and selling off are just being misled by market sentiment and haven't understood the deeper implications at all.
First, let's clarify: this is not a 'turnaround', it's 'observation'.
Many people associate 'no rate cuts' with 'hawkish'; this is purely out of context. The megaphone clearly stated: 'The unemployment rate hasn't reached the point where an immediate rate cut is necessary.' The key word is 'immediate,' not 'never.' The difference between these two words is even greater than the difference between Bitcoin and worthless tokens.
I looked up the latest market data, and here's the interesting part: even after this news came out, people's expectations for two rate cuts before 2026 haven't changed at all. In fact, institutions have slightly increased the probability of a rate cut in January. What does this indicate? The real big money isn't panicking; it's the small investors chasing highs and panic selling that are.
Let's talk about historical rules that seasoned investors should remember: after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, there has always been a 'wait-and-see period.' It's like taking medicine; you have to wait a few days to see if it has any effect. You can't just take one pill and immediately increase the dosage, right? But once the rate cut cycle begins, it's just like a bull market in crypto; stopping suddenly is as difficult as climbing to the sky.
So my core point is this: short-term fluctuations are just emotional tantrums; the overall direction of rate cuts hasn't changed a bit.
Second, see through the essence: not cutting rates in January is actually a good thing.
Don't just focus on the words 'no rate cuts'; think about the Federal Reserve's underlying intentions. To put it bluntly, not cutting rates now is about building up for the upcoming market movements, hiding three major logics behind it.
1. Economic data hasn't reached the level of 'adding fuel to the fire.'
First, look at the unemployment rate. Although it has risen to 4.6%, the Federal Reserve has a number in mind; 4% to 5% is their 'comfort zone,' and it's not at a point where immediate action is necessary. Then look at inflation; the core PCE has dropped to 2.8%, which is down but still away from the 2% target. If they rush to cut rates now, what if inflation rebounds?
The Federal Reserve is currently focused on 'stability.' After the first rate cut, they will spend 1-2 months observing economic reactions to avoid excessive stimulation; this approach is reasonable.
2. 'Cooling down' the market is to go further.
To put it bluntly, if rates are really cut in January, the stock market and cryptocurrencies might go crazy again, and the bigger the bubble, the more painful it will be when it bursts. Now by hitting the brakes a bit, we can prevent the market from overheating.
More importantly, we need to keep some policy tools handy. If the economy really runs into problems later on, we can't be left without options, right? It's like how we hold onto bullets when trading crypto; we can't go all in at once.
3. Once the rate cut cycle begins, it can't be stopped.
I looked at the records from 2019, when the Federal Reserve cut rates three times in July, September, and October. What is the current situation? The unemployment rate is rising, inflation is falling, and the basic conditions for rate cuts are still there. How can we say it will stop just like that?
So I dare to assure you: not cutting rates in January doesn't mean the end of the cycle; it's about 'trading time for space.' When the subsequent conditions mature, the easing will only become stronger.
Three, the impact on the crypto market: short-term volatility, long-term gains.
Many people are most concerned about the price of coins. I will break it down into short-term and medium-term to clarify how to operate at different stages.
1. Short term (1-3 months): Volatility is the norm; don't chase highs or panic sell.
Now that the expectation for rate cuts is slightly cooling, funds will definitely wait and see for a while. Bitcoin will likely fluctuate between 82,000 and 90,000. From a technical perspective, 92,000 is a tough resistance; without sufficient trading volume, it can't break through.
My operational advice is simple: sell high and buy low. When the price approaches 90,000, reduce your holdings a bit; if it drops below 82,000, add a bit more. Don't chase when it rises or panic sell when it dips; that's not trading crypto, that's just giving money to the market.
2. Medium to long term (6-12 months): Target 120,000 to 150,000, the logic hasn't changed.
Everyone remember two core logics: First, the expectation for rate cuts is still there; two rate cuts in 2026 are inevitable, and once liquidity is released, crypto prices will definitely respond. Second, the effect of Bitcoin halving; the changes in supply and demand will gradually manifest in 2026 after the halving in 2024.
With these two factors combined, my target for 2026 is 120,000 to 150,000; as long as the overall direction doesn't change, this target isn't exaggerated.
3. Ethereum: An undervalued opportunity, don't miss it.
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum currently has more appeal. On one hand, there is the favorable environment of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, and on the other hand, there are expectations for the Fusaka upgrade, making it a 'double buff.'
Currently, the exchange rate of ETH compared to BTC is 0.035, which is close to historical lows, and the rebound potential is greater than that of Bitcoin. My suggestion is to allocate 20% of your position to buy in batches, with a stop-loss set at $2,600. Even with short-term fluctuations, you won't incur long-term losses.
Four, beware of the pitfalls: don't let 'short-term noise' cut you down.
The news in the market is a mix of truth and lies; everyone must learn to filter out the noise. These several risk points must be remembered.
First of all, the 'megaphone' is not the Federal Reserve itself; the reporters' words can only be taken as references. The formal decision in January may still change. Secondly, if future employment and inflation data suddenly exceed expectations, the rate cut may really be delayed, so we need to keep an eye on the data. Finally, external factors like the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes and geopolitical conflicts may also cause the market to change suddenly.
So, in terms of operations, you must adhere to the discipline: in the core position, mainstream coins should not account for less than 50%, and you must hold onto your base position; add to your position every time it drops by about 5%, and don't chase highs; if Bitcoin drops below 82,000, you must reduce your position and not stubbornly hold through black swan events.
Five, the heartfelt words of seasoned investors: during the rate cut cycle, holding on is more important than anything else.
I experienced a rate cut cycle in 2019, when Bitcoin rose from 3,800 to 69,000, but there were several drops of over 30% in between. Many people panicked and sold during the corrections, ending up regretting it.
The current situation is very similar to then; the direction for rate cuts hasn't changed. Each short-term correction actually gives opportunities to those who haven't boarded yet. My strategy is clear: short-term support is at 82,000; if it breaks below that, be cautious. For the medium term, anything below 85,000 is considered a safe zone where we can gradually position ourselves. For the long term, just wait for the resonance of rate cuts and halving, heading towards the target of 120,000 to 150,000.
Finally, let’s chat: are you bottom fishing or waiting on the sidelines?
In my view, not cutting rates in January is just a minor episode that won't create big waves. But we can't be too greedy; we need to keep an eye on external risks, and controlling our positions is key.
What about you? Do you think now is the time to 'buy the dip' because the bad news is all out, or should we wait a bit longer for a more stable approach? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let's discuss together@Square-Creator-0a44f19a1d7d9 #ETH走势分析 $BTC
