Family, who understands! This ETH seems to be stuck like it's been acupointed, lying around the vicinity of $2940 for a whole day, with a range of only 0.24%, even smaller than the bargaining range of the elderly ladies in my neighborhood when buying groceries. The trading volume has dropped like leaves in winter, with both bulls and bears stuck there, resembling two old men arguing at the village entrance, neither daring to make the first move. But let me tell you, this 'feeling of suffocation' is precisely the signal before the storm; today, this Buddha is very likely to move!
1. The signal from the market: a drastic decrease in volume is the trumpet for a trend change.
Don't just look at ETH 'lying flat', the technicals have already revealed their cards, contradictory but very clear:
The Bollinger Bands are about to become a single line: upper band at 2986, lower band at 2898, just 88 dollars apart. This width is the narrowest it has been this year. Those in the know understand that the narrower it gets, the more 'violent' the upcoming market movement will be, like a spring that has been compressed to the extreme; once released, it will either shoot up to the sky or crash down to the ground.
MACD is playing 'cat and mouse': DIF and DEA just formed a death cross below the zero axis, looking frightening, but the green bars seem like they haven't eaten, not gaining any weight. This indicates that while the bears look fierce, their strength is actually leaking, it’s just a facade.
2942 is the lifeline: this position happens to be the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. If it stabilizes, it will rush towards 3014; if it can't hold, then it has to endure at 2879.
As a veteran who has been watching the market for 8 years, I can confidently say: this 'stagnation' is scarier than daily volatility. Today is definitely a critical node for direction selection; missing it could mean waiting another week for an opportunity.
Giant Whales Fighting Scene: A 74 million short position crashing down, and institutions picking up the pieces behind?
Don't just look at the market's excitement; on-chain data is the real battlefield. Recently, this wave of fluctuations is essentially the whales and institutions 'arm wrestling':
First, let me talk about the so-called 'Reaper' whale. I won’t post the address (those who know, know), it just closed its BTC long position and immediately opened a 25,000 ETH short position, amounting to about 74 million dollars. This entity has hit the mark in all of its last 12 operations, with an astonishing win rate. When the news came out, many retail investors panicked and cut their losses.
But interestingly, while the whales are selling, institutions are secretly buying. I looked up the data, and big institutions like BitMine have quietly accumulated 48,000 ETH in the range of 2900 to 2950, perfectly hedging against the whales' short positions. More crucially, the ETH supply on exchanges has dropped to a multi-year low of only 8.7%, most of which is locked in staking or held by long-term players.
Let me reveal something to everyone: the chips are tightly held by a few people, so the selling pressure is not that great, but liquidity is poor—this is like driving in a narrow alley. Just a little push on the gas can easily shoot out, and hitting the brakes can easily stall. A flash crash or explosive rally is possible. However, the whales' short positions are at most a short-term disruption; institutions daring to bottom fish at this position indicates that they recognize this value in the medium to long term, and ultimately the market must return to fundamentals.
Three scripts to help you understand clearly: How to operate long and short without stepping on pits?
I never engage in 'guessing rises and falls'; I directly present three possible trends to everyone, each with an accompanying operational strategy, so even beginners can understand:
Script 1: Rebound and Attack (Probability 40%)
The triggering conditions are simple: the price stabilizes at 2942, and the hourly chart closes with a bullish candle, with MACD also showing a golden cross with volume. If these conditions are met, that will be the signal to enter.
Target levels are divided into three steps: first look for 3014 (this is the critical level of the Fibonacci 38.2%), if it breaks through, aim for 3100 (psychological barrier, there will definitely be selling pressure), and if it shows more strength, it could touch 3170 (breaking here would invalidate the downtrend).
In terms of operations, don't be greedy: try a small position at the current price, set a stop loss at 2880 (if broken, it indicates the rebound is false), first aim for 3014, and once it gets there, take half profits, and hold the rest based on the situation.
Script 2: Breakdown and Decline (Probability 50%)
This is the situation I think is more likely: if the volume breaks below the lower Bollinger Band at 2898, don't hesitate, quickly avoid the risk.
The target levels are also clear: first look for 2879 (the previous low), if it can't hold, then down to 2803 (weekly support, there's a high probability it will bounce here), and further down is 2750 (the dense area of whale liquidations; reaching here could actually present a buying opportunity).
Operational Strategy: Don't wait until it falls to the bottom to short; it's safer to position near 2980 during a rebound. Set a stop loss at 3050 (if broken, it's a false breakout), and aim first for 2850, and once it gets there, take profits.
Script 3: News Disruption (Probability 10%)
This is all about luck now. For example, if the Federal Reserve suddenly speaks, if there is new dynamics in related products, or if whales suddenly sell off, it could trigger a flash crash or a spike.
The principle of response is simple: don't guess, follow the breakout. If it breaks 3050, then go long; if it falls below 2850, then go short. Set a strict stop loss of 50 points; even if you get stopped out, don't hold onto the position. Surviving in the crypto market is more important than anything else.
Risk Warning: Stepping on any of these pits could lead to a total loss.
Lastly, let me share something heartfelt: while the recent market seems stable, the risks are larger than anyone else’s. These three pits must be avoided at all costs:
Leveraged liquidations in a chain reaction: the current ETH contract open interest is at an all-time high; as long as the price moves 5%, it could trigger liquidations worth 1 billion dollars. The position you hold may be making money one second, but the next second could be forcibly liquidated.
False Breakout Trap: During low volume, the main players love to play 'fake moves,' deliberately breaking support or resistance levels to trigger retail investors' stop-loss orders, and then pulling back in the opposite direction. So don't rush to enter just because the level is broken; wait for the volume to confirm before acting.
Macro Black Swan: There are quite a few external risks now, the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates is at 88%, and if the Federal Reserve mentions delaying interest rate cuts, the entire market will shake.
Let's set a hard rule: a single position must not exceed 10%, no matter how confident you are, always set a stop loss. Don't go against the market—I have seen too many people go from making millions to being in debt because they 'held on,' it's really not worth it.
My final viewpoint: short-term bottoming, long-term holding is winning.
After saying so much, let me summarize my core view: ETH is now right on the edge of the 'golden pit.' In the short term, it may be driven down to wash out uncertain retail investors, testing 2800 to 2850, but in the medium to long term, the fundamentals can hold. The upgrade on December 3rd will land, and the staking ratio has reached a new high (32.4 million ETH have been locked), which are solid supports.
So the retail investors' response strategy is very simple:
Short-term players should operate according to the script I mentioned earlier; don't be greedy or hold onto positions. For medium-term players, if you see a drop below 2850, you can start dollar-cost averaging, increasing your position by 10% for every 100 dollars down, with a bottom line set at 2600; when it hits, go all in on a part. If it breaks 3100, then chase the rally, targeting 3300 to 3500. Additionally, keep an eye on that 'Reaper Whale' address; if it flips from short to long, that would be a clear reversal signal.
To be honest, the crypto market has never been about who can predict better, but rather who can last longer. In the current market, the worst thing is chasing highs and cutting losses; be patient and wait until the direction is clear before acting. Surviving is the only way to catch the next major wave.
✨ Interaction Moment: Do you think ETH will 'stage a comeback to surpass 3000' today, or 'break down to 2800'? Come to the comments section to share your views, and the highest liked comment will receive a personal copy of the (ETH Main Fund Tracking Sheet) from me to help you see the institutional movements clearly!
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