12.18 Market analysis key events approaching, fluctuations are a normal phenomenon
First, the conclusion:
Yesterday's rise and fall is not a sign of a bad market, but rather a typical response to the macro event window.
As the CPI data and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike approach, market uncertainty continues to amplify, with funds preemptively hedging, and prices fluctuating back and forth. It has been pointed out that the closer we get to key nodes, the easier it is for BTC to dip, with around $85,000 being an emotional release zone.
CPI will be announced at 9:30 PM tonight, and the Bank of Japan will announce the interest rate hike results tomorrow.
After the events unfold, uncertainty will be eliminated, and the market is expected to return to a smooth rhythm.
If CPI is lower than expected, it will strengthen rate cut expectations, giving BTC a chance to recover to around $94,000; conversely, it will remain volatile in the short term, but the downside space is limited.
From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve has fallen into a dilemma of "high interest rates and inflation," and rate cuts remain the medium to long-term direction, though the process is fraught with fluctuations.
At the same time, ancient BTC holdings and institutional turnover are approaching 70%, with the structure continuously shifting towards long-term capital, and the current range is not overestimated.
On the altcoin front, the narrative of public chains is clearly retreating.
The number of projects far exceeds real demand, and coins lacking user and ecological support are likely to revert to value or even go to zero.
In terms of strategy:
Focus on BTC, buy on dips in a volatile market;
Control positions and keep some dry powder;
Real opportunities often arise when the market is most fearful.
This analysis is for reference only, and trading requires independent judgment,
Maintain the rhythm to wait for the trend to truly unfold.
