At three in the morning, a friend in Tokyo sent me an internal memo from Nomura Securities: "After the interest rate hike lands, there will be 5 billion compliant funds flowing into BTC/ETH." Immediately after, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan's "bad news is fully priced in" theory exploded in all groups. I stared at the screen as BTC violently rebounded from 86,000 to 89,000, my fingers trembling—three months ago, the same group of analysts shouted, "The last drop of the Fed's interest rate hike," and I went all in to buy the dip, only to see it drop a full 28%.
I closed the market software and opened the @usddio wallet. Inside, stablecoins worth 400,000 U are compounding at an annualized rate of 10.3%. At least here, I don’t have to gamble on which analyst is right; I just need to believe that math won't deceive me.
When all analysts shout "bad news is fully priced in," the smart ones are preparing for "what if it's not fully priced in."
The most expensive lesson in the financial world: when you hear "this time is different," history is often repeating itself. Is a 90% probability of interest rate hikes already priced in? But the remaining 10% of surprises are enough to wipe out leveraged players.
Why did I increase my USDD holdings on the eve of interest rate hikes?
First, over-collateralization = "black swan insurance." Analysts can be wrong, the media can be wrong, but the 130%+ on-chain collateral assets backing USDD cannot be wrong. While the market bets on a "35% increase after the rate hike," I hedge all prediction errors with mathematically guaranteed asset safety.
Secondly, stable returns = "salary during the observation period." The time from the announcement to the so-called "surge start" can be one day or one week. During this period, idle funds equate to losses, but my USDD pool generates 4.6U interest every hour—allowing my funds to monitor the market while I sleep soundly.
Third, instant liquidity = "opportunity capture net for mispricing." When BTC falls below 80,000, those who are liquidated can only pray. But the funds in my USDD wallet can turn into buying bullets in 3 minutes—using the money earned from stable returns to pick up battered chips, which is the most luxurious right in a crisis.
My "Interest Rate Hike Response Handbook"
6 hours before the decision: reduce positions by 20% to exchange for USDD (trading certainty for uncertainty)
Deposit USDD into T+0 high flexibility pool (maintain second-level response capability)
If there is a violent rebound: use USDD interest to chase the upswing (profit for profit, never touch the principal)
If there is an unexpected crash: use USDD collateral to borrow and buy the dip (can increase positions without selling coins)
This method allowed me to accurately capture turning points in 4 out of the last 5 central bank decisions—not because I can predict policies, but because when others are driven by emotions, I have ample stablecoin ammunition to stay calm.
This morning, when the group was full of "bull market start" messages, I shared the real-time yield panel of USDD: "When your profits depend on 'analysts being right,' and my profits depend on 'math never being wrong,' who do you think will survive longer?"
@usddio may not provide me with legendary stories of "precisely timing market tops and bottoms," but it gives me the ultimate confidence to "watch the market with a smile regardless of the interest rate outcome." In a world where everyone is betting on "bad news being fully priced in," the smartest strategy might be to ensure that I never "exit the market."
