1. The market maker's 'script,' I expose it like this
I have seen too many people fall into the '300% surge' fireworks. In 2017, I was one of them—chasing a certain altcoin, celebrating when the market maker pumped it, thinking it was accumulating when it traded sideways for three days, only to have a big bearish candle lead to liquidation. Later, I reviewed hundreds of cases and realized: rapid rise + high-level consolidation + breaking down with a volume drop of 15% is simply the standard action for market makers to offload.
Last year, $AVAV surged to $150 and then exhibited the exact same pattern; I went short and made 87 in three weeks. The market maker's sleight of hand is essentially leveraging human greed and dreams—but when the pattern repeats enough, it becomes a money-printing code.
2. The scariest thing is not the crash, but 'high position silence'.
In 2019, I held a mainstream coin that hovered for two months, with trading volume decreasing day by day, while the community still shouted 'hold for a rise'. As a result, it silently dropped 80%. Now I have a hard rule in my system: if the turnover rate falls below 2% for consecutive days, and the price deviates from MA20 by more than 20%, it's a signal of funds fleeing.
This kind of 'deathly silence' is more dangerous than a crash—because most people will comfort themselves with 'stay steady', not knowing that the main force has already retreated.
3. Bottom fishing? First, understand 'volume heartbeat'.
'On March 12', I bottomed out on $LINK, thinking I was picking up a bargain, but it halved again. Later, I studied over 300 bottom cases and found that the real bottom is never about 'dropping a lot', but rather after a period of low volume consolidation, it shows a gentle increase in volume with three consecutive days of positive candlesticks—like a heart starting to beat again.
Last year when Bitcoin hit $25,000, this signal appeared, and I went all in; six months later, I sold at $42,000 to gather enough for a down payment in Shenzhen. Volume is the market's breath; if the breath hasn't recovered, don't rush to be a hero.
4. My position philosophy: half position to stay alive, volume determines life and death.
The most toxic soup in the cryptocurrency circle is 'All-in to get rich'. I've seen too many people leverage and chase highs, only to end up at zero. My rule is simple:
Always half position: even if $PEPE doubles in a day, I will only use 50% of my funds, keeping half for black swans.
Volume 5x rule: Only when the price breaks out of the range and the trading volume surges over 5 times, I will follow the trend.
Once the trend line breaks, immediately take profit: Last year, I 'only made' 12 times on $PEPE, but I avoided 90% of the subsequent crash.
5. Emotion management: do not trade when tired, do not rewrite the rules.
I used to stay up all night watching the market, and due to decision fatigue, I made more basic mistakes than losses in a bear market. Now I have a phrase engraved on my screen: 'Operations when tired are like sending red envelopes to the dealer.'
Also, rules are not meant to be broken. I've seen people move their stop-loss lines, only to get liquidated. My principle is: once the stop-loss is triggered, even if it skyrockets the next second, I won't regret it.
Written at the end.
The cryptocurrency circle only rewards rules and patience, not tears. My cousin went from being unable to afford a 13 yuan lunch box to settling in Shenzhen Bay, relying not on a code for getting rich but on ingraining discipline into instinct.
A bull market will come, but only those who survive have the right to see the dawn.
Remember: Candlestick charts tell the story of the dealer, but trading volume is the heartbeat they can't hide.
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