At three in the morning, I received a wild message from a fan: 'Sister! Interest rates have dropped! I'm all in!' I instantly woke up, feeling a chill down my spine—what the market offers as 'sweetness' often hides the sharpest hooks.
The recently concluded Federal Reserve meeting has made many people's hearts race. But the truth is: this is not a floodgate opening, but a precise 'emotional feeding.'
Doves are crying out for a drastic 50 basis point cut, while hawks are shouting in opposition. The result? A 25 basis point cut—this dosage is like giving you a candy in the desert; taking a lick only makes you thirstier, yet some treat it as a lifesaving water source.
01 Market illusions, specialized in curing discontent
Moments are already being flooded with 'bull market restart,' but I want to ask you: do you still remember the tragedy of Luna collapsing overnight? Do you remember that sleepless night when FTX exploded?
The cruelest trick of the market is: to give a glimmer of hope when you are desperate, and then extinguish it by hand. The Federal Reserve is not a savior, but a top 'master of expectation management.' They release positive news to soothe the market with one hand, while tightly holding the reins with the other, ready to tighten at any moment.
The division in the circle is becoming more and more obvious:
Emotional faction: seeing the words 'interest rate cut' leads to an internal climax, treating rebounds as reversals and fluctuations as trends.
Logical faction: silently watching the core CPI data, knowing that as long as inflation fluctuates, the current revelry is just cannon fodder.
Behind this division lies the issue of information asymmetry and cognitive differences. Some people scroll through positive news all night but haven't even opened the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes.
02 Bloody cases, worth reviewing
In the last bull market, I saw too many scripts of 'the clever being deceived by the clever.' When DeFi 2.0 was booming in 2021, there was a project claiming 'guaranteed profit,' but it collapsed three months later, leaving investors with nothing.
Ironically, many people are defeated by 'thinking they are smart.' I know a trader who made considerable profits through swing trading during the 2022 bear market, but lost all earnings due to greed in LUNA.
And those chasing 'high yield' traps: seeing the Anchor protocol's 20% annualized yield feels safe, but the LUNA ecosystem with a market value of billions evaporated within days.
These lessons tell us: in this market, surviving is more important than anything.
03 My survival rule, said only once
After eight years in the cryptocurrency circle, I have summarized three iron rules, hoping to help you avoid open and hidden arrows:
1. Focus on the data, don’t get swayed by emotions
After the interest rate cut news came out, my first reaction was to check the CPI data release calendar. The latest inflation data on the 24th is the real touchstone. If inflation rebounds, those who chase in now are just delivering hot buns to the door.
Always remember: the market specializes in curing all discontent, especially the illness of 'wanting to get rich overnight.'
2. Position management is your moat
My current strategy is: only buy mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, with a position not exceeding 50%. Small coins seem tempting, but it’s not unusual to lose 80% in a week when they drop.
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket—but more importantly, ensure that your basket itself won’t fall apart.
3. Realizing profits is your money
Don’t expect this wave of market conditions to replicate the massive liquidity of 2020. Taking profits at 10%-20% is decisive; greed will only put your principal at risk.
Some may laugh at your timidity, but when the tide recedes, those in shorts will always look better than those who swim naked.
04 Clarity is the greatest virtue
Every market fluctuation is a test of human nature. Pessimists are right, optimists make money, but only those who survive have the right to write the script.
Don’t forget, your principal is your only, last, and hardest chip. Don’t let the Federal Reserve's 'sugar pill' turn into your 'arsenic.'
Now, put down your phone and get a good sleep. If you really can’t sleep—go check the CPI data; it’s more useful than scrolling through positive news. Follow Ake to learn more first-hand information and precise points in the cryptocurrency circle, becoming your navigation in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 $ETH
