News author: Crypto Emergency
The fourth quarter of 2025 is nearing its end, and Bitcoin is confidently heading towards its worst result in the last seven years. Despite hopes for a 'New Year's rally', the market is showing a deep correction, and time for a turnaround is running out.
Optimism versus reality
In autumn, Eric Trump, son of U.S. President Donald Trump, predicted a strong year-end for the cryptocurrency market in an interview with the New York Post, relying on the historical strength of the fourth quarter and expectations of liquidity growth.
"I think the fourth quarter of this year will be incredible for a whole host of reasons," he stated.
However, by December 17, it became clear: instead of a rally, the market plunged into a prolonged decline.
The numbers speak for themselves
According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin's yield in the current quarter is -23.73%. Even a possible December rebound is unable to compensate for such a deep drawdown.
For comparison:
• 2018, Q4: -42.16%
• 2019, Q4: -13.54%
• 2022, Q4: -14.75%
• 2024, Q4: +47.73%
Thus, Q4 2025 has already gone down in history as one of the weakest.
Breaking seasonal patterns
Historically, the fourth quarter has been considered the most favorable period for Bitcoin: the average yield exceeded +77%, and the median hovered around +48%. These figures have fueled expectations of a "New Year's rally" for decades. But 2025 shattered this logic.
Eric Trump's forecasts as a meme
The crypto community ironically received yet another optimistic forecast from Eric Trump. Throughout the year, his statements about growth often coincided with subsequent declines. Many investors even began to act contrary to his words.
The forecast of an "incredible" fourth quarter only reinforced skepticism. The results of December showed: the market ignores seasonality and public optimism.
Outcome
Although the quarter is not formally over yet, the chances of a turnaround are minimal. Bitcoin is confidently heading towards the worst Q4 since 2018, demonstrating that historical patterns do not always hold.
