Bitcoin first fell in respect of the butterfly effect of Japan's interest rate hike. On December 15, Bitcoin dropped from 90,000 to 85,600, a single-day decrease of -5%. There were no explosions or negative news, and gold hardly moved. The seemingly unsolvable decline actually has its answer in Tokyo. On the 19th, the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest rate in nearly 30 years. Don't underestimate this 25 basis points; it is shaking the underlying logic of global liquidity. After years of zero interest rates, global funds relied on "yen carry trade"—borrowing yen, exchanging for dollars, and buying high-yield assets (U.S. stocks, bonds, BTC). Now, with the imminent rate hike, the cost of borrowing yen is rising, and expectations of yen appreciation are increasing, forcing institutions to close positions and replenish yen, selling off the most liquid asset on hand—Bitcoin is the first to be affected. This scenario is not the first. After Japan's rate hike in July 2024, BTC plummeted 23% in a week. Statistics show that after the last three rate hikes, BTC averaged a drawdown of over 20%. This decline is fundamentally due to funds rushing to exit. A deeper change is that since the approval of the spot ETF, BTC is no longer an "independent digital gold" but has been included in Wall Street's risk asset pool. Once institutions tighten their risk budgets, U.S. stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin will all be reduced. The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq has soared from the past 0.2 to 0.8, and the trend increasingly resembles high beta tech stocks. Therefore, this round of decline is not about the Japanese selling coins, but rather global institutions reducing risk. The fate of BTC has been tied to global liquidity. On December 19, if the Bank of Japan's remarks are hawkish, it may trigger another round of short-term volatility; but if market expectations are fulfilled, selling pressure may be limited. Historical patterns show that BTC usually stabilizes and rebounds one to two weeks after a resolution. Today's BTC is no longer an isolated island. A meeting in Tokyo is enough to cause global coin prices to fluctuate. This is the reality of the institutional era.