Introduction: Why 2026 specifically?
Although 2025 has not turned into a complete 'supermarket', the market has entered a different phase from previous cycles: a large part of the demand is coming through organized channels (ETFs, banks, asset managers), while the other part is accelerating through an 'infrastructure' that has become more mature (faster networks, easier wallets, on-chain liquidity, and applications closer to daily use).
The most important thing: when the “path of money entry” becomes easier and clearer regulatory-wise, any wave of optimism or improvement in liquidity turns into a faster and stronger price movement. This is exactly what investors are watching as they enter 2026.
1) Institutions + ETFs: the organized demand that puts pressure on supply
On January 10, 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the listing and trading of several spot Bitcoin products (Spot Bitcoin ETPs/ETFs), which was a game-changing event in terms of ease of exposure to Bitcoin within traditional accounts.
A quick data snapshot (an example of “supply pressure”)
. The holdings of the IBIT fund under BlackRock: 778,052.2 BTC (as of December 15, 2025)
. The circulating supply of Bitcoin: 19,962,621.05 BTC (December 15, 2025)
. The approximate share of IBIT from the circulating supply: about 3.90% (calculated from the two numbers above)
Why is this important for the 2026 scenario?
. Because “institutional demand” when it flows through ETFs does not need to convince people to download a wallet or understand private keys; a portfolio allocation decision is enough.
. With a large portion of Bitcoin remaining untraded (long-term investors/corporate treasuries/funds), any ongoing buying wave could create a liquidity scarcity that quickly shows on the price.
The potential narrative for 2026 here: “Bitcoin has become a conservative asset within regulated products… and with each new flow, the liquidity available in the spot market decreases.”
2) Stablecoin regulations: A “payment rail” that could bring crypto into daily life
On July 18, 2025, the GENIUS Act was signed into law in the United States, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins (dollar-pegged currencies), with requirements such as liquid reserve support and monthly disclosure of reserves.
And the numbers here are striking: A Reuters report indicated that the stablecoin market was estimated at over 260 billion dollars, with estimates (Standard Chartered) suggesting it could reach 2 trillion dollars by 2028 under the new regulatory environment.
Why could stablecoins be a “trigger” for a rise?
. Because it connects the crypto world with real demand: remittances, payments, settlements between companies, treasury, and salaries… not just speculation.
. And because the growth of stablecoins usually means the growth of the “ammunition” that moves within the market (liquidity that can quickly transfer between networks and protocols).
The potential narrative for 2026 here: “Stablecoins are not just liquidity for trading… but infrastructure for payments, and with regulation, they may transition from ‘trading tool’ to ‘public financial instrument.’”
3) “Supply contraction” + cycles: The post-halving effect extends
Bitcoin goes through a known issuance cycle. In the fourth halving (April 19, 2024), the mining reward dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.
Even if the market has “priced” the event partially, the real effect appears over time: less selling pressure from miners (with steady or increasing demand) = a new equilibrium that may tilt towards rising when liquidity and general sentiment change.
The potential narrative for 2026 here: “The issuance is shrinking... and organized demand is expanding... the gap could translate into a wave of rise.”
4) Establishing “crypto as a sector” instead of “one currency”
If we wanted to summarize what distinguishes the 2026 phase from the 2017/2021 phases:
. In the past: the market often moved around “one big story.”
. Now: the market resembles sectors, and each sector may lead a different wave.
Sectors that may lead the narrative in 2026
A) Settlement infrastructure (Stablecoins + Onchain Finance)
With the U.S. regulatory framework, we may see more institutions offering settlement/custody/transfer products that rely on stablecoins under clear controls.
B) “Money on-chain” as an asset class
It doesn't have to be “DeFi” as it was in 2020–2021. The idea now is closer to: saving, yield, liquidity management, and issuing digital assets linked to real money.
C) Bitcoin as an asset layer + service layers
With the entry of ETFs and increasing institutional holdings, services around Bitcoin may expand: custody, organized lending, yield products under controls, and liquidity services.
5) Operational indicators to watch before/during 2026
If you want to read “Are we on the brink of a bullish wave?” away from the noise, watch these signals:
1. The trend of ETF flows: Are there continuous or intermittent flows? (The important thing is not one day, but the trend).
2. Growth of stablecoin volume: The market growth from 260B to higher levels may mean new real liquidity.
3. The ratio of held supply: Example IBIT alone ~3.9% of the circulating supply (based on December 2025 figures), so how would it be if you added the rest of the channels?
4. The regulatory environment: every step that reduces “uncertainty” increases institutions' willingness to enter.
6) Risks that could disrupt the bullish scenario
There is no wave of rise without pitfalls. These are the main risks that could weaken the narratives of 2026:
1. A sudden change in global liquidity (financial tightening, inflation shocks…).
2. Additional regulatory tightening or strict enforcement may reduce innovation or raise compliance costs on projects.
3. Major breakthroughs/setbacks (especially in bridges/new protocols) could shake confidence.
4. Concentration of holdings within specific channels: organized demand is strong, but it may reverse the trend if it turns into an exit wave.
Summary: “What should this mean for you as an investor/follower?”
2026 may not just be a year of “price rises,” but a year of structural transformation:
1. Bitcoin is strengthening as an institutional asset through regulated products.
2. Stablecoins are approaching becoming a payment rail within a legal framework, with enormous growth prospects.
3. The continued contraction in Bitcoin issuance after the halving remains a long-term positive pressure factor when liquidity is available.
