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The Bitcoin currency has experienced a violent wave of fluctuations in the past few hours, with the price jumping by more than $3000 in less than an hour, before sharply reversing and falling back to around $86000. This sudden move was not driven by any significant news or fundamental developments in the market.

Trading data indicates that the main reason for this sharp volatility was internal factors in the market structure, most notably high leverage, trader positioning, and weak liquidity during moments of rapid movement.

These combined factors created a fragile environment, making the market susceptible to violent movements in both directions without the need for clear external triggers.

In the midst of Bitcoin's violent fluctuations, which soared $3,000 and then collapsed to $86,000 within a few hours, analyzing internal market factors such as high leverage and forced liquidation becomes crucial. By subscribing to Investing Pro now available in Arabic, you can use WarrenAI to monitor such matters, taking advantage of a discount of up to 55% during the online two-offer.

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Short selling pressure ignites the rise

The upward wave began when the price of Bitcoin approached the $90,000 level, a psychologically and technically significant level. Liquidation data shows a large stack of short positions financed by leverage above this level.

As the price rose, these positions were forced to close, requiring immediate purchases of Bitcoin, which accelerated the upward movement. During this phase, short positions worth approximately $120 million were liquidated.

This scenario is known as short selling pressure, where forced buying drives the price up faster than what is justified by actual demand movement in the spot market.

From sharp rise to sudden collapse

When the price briefly broke the $90,000 level, new traders entered the market driven by momentum, with many opening leveraged long positions in hopes of a sustained breakout.

However, the rise lacked real support from immediate demand and quickly lost momentum. As the decline began, new long positions became vulnerable, especially with the breaking of key support levels.

As a result, a wave of violent liquidation of long positions began, exceeding $200 million, which caused the descent to accelerate faster and deeper than the previous rise, bringing the price back to around $86,000 within a few hours.

Fragile positioning and high leverage

Data on trader positioning from major trading platforms reveals that the market was in a fragile state and poised for sharp fluctuations. On the Binance platform, the ratio of accounts of major traders leaning towards long positions increased before the price jump, but the sizes of these positions were not large, reflecting a weak level of conviction and a greater reliance on chasing momentum rather than making bets based on strong fundamentals.

In contrast, data from the OKX platform showed rapid and sharp changes in positioning ratios following the wave of volatility, indicating active moves by major traders to rearrange their positions, either by taking advantage of price corrections or by adjusting hedging strategies.

This overlap between crowded positioning, limited conviction, and intensive use of leverage creates a highly sensitive market environment, where prices are prone to violent and rapid movements in both directions over extremely short time frames.

Was there intentional manipulation?

Chain data showed that some market makers, such as Wintermute, transferred quantities of Bitcoin between platforms during periods of volatility. Although these movements coincided with price changes, they do not constitute conclusive evidence of manipulation.

Market makers typically rebalance their portfolios during periods of pressure, and transfers may reflect hedging, liquidity management, or providing market depth, rather than necessarily being deliberate sales to push prices down.

Most importantly, the entire movement can be explained by known market mechanisms, such as liquidation clusters, high leverage, and weak order books, without the need to assume coordinated manipulation.

What does this wave mean for the future of Bitcoin?

This incident highlights one of the most significant risks of the current Bitcoin market, which is the high levels of leverage remaining, alongside the rapid evaporation of liquidity during fast movements.

As the price approached pivotal levels, forced liquidation became the dominant factor in price movement, regardless of fundamentals. During these hours, there was no change in the intrinsic value of Bitcoin.

What happened was a reflection of the fragility of the market structure, not a shift in the long-term trend. Until leverage levels return to normal and positioning becomes more balanced, similar moves will remain possible at any time, as leverage can turn against the market itself.$BTC

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