Cryptocurrency halving refers to an event in certain cryptocurrency networks (most notably Bitcoin) where the block rewards are pre-set to periodically decrease. This is part of its core monetary policy, aimed at controlling inflation and creating scarcity.
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1. Core Concepts
· What it is: Halving refers to the event where the new block rewards generated by mining are automatically reduced to half by the system.
· Purpose:
· Control issuance: Mimicking the increasing difficulty of mining scarce resources like gold, slowing down the output speed of new coins.
· Combat inflation: Maintaining the long-term stability of currency value by programmatically reducing the supply growth rate.
· Incentives and security transition: After block rewards reach zero, maintaining network security through transaction fees.
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2. Taking Bitcoin as an example
· Mechanism:
· The initial block reward for Bitcoin is 50 BTC.
· The reward is halved every 210,000 blocks (approximately every 4 years).
· After the next halving, the reward will be half of the current one, until around the year 2140 when the reward approaches zero, with a total supply capped at 21 million coins.
· Historical halving records:
Halving times Date Block height Reward change Bitcoin price at halving (approx.)
First time November 2012 210,000 50 BTC → 25 BTC Approximately $12
Second time July 2016 420,000 25 BTC → 12.5 BTC Approximately $650
Third time May 2020 630,000 12.5 BTC → 6.25 BTC Approximately $8,500
Fourth time April 2024 840,000 6.25 BTC → 3.125 BTC Approximately $63,000
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3. Major Impacts
1. Supply and demand relationship:
· Supply reduction: If demand remains the same or increases, the selling pressure of new coins decreases, which may drive prices up (core market narrative).
2. Miner ecology:
· Sudden income drop: The halving directly impacts miner income; inefficient old mining machines may be forced to shut down.
· Hashrate fluctuations: Short-term hashrate may decline, followed by network difficulty adjustments prompting miners to upgrade their equipment.
3. Market cycles:
· Historical data shows that bull market cycles often accompany halving events (though not an absolute causal relationship, influenced by multiple factors).
· The market typically speculates on “halving expectations” months in advance; actual impacts need to be assessed in conjunction with the macro environment.
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