When I first entered the industry, a big shot who had been in A-shares for more than twenty years awakened me with a phrase:
The most dangerous moments in the market are often when everyone is most certain.
When everyone is talking about 'certainty' and 'easy money', you should raise your guard.
Later, I found that whether in A-shares or in the cryptocurrency circle, the fundamental logic is not much different.
It revolves around hotspots, stories, and emotions.
A-shares change themes, the cryptocurrency circle changes narratives, what changes is just the outer garment, the core is all about 'expectation differences'.
These narratives can be roughly divided into three types.
The first type is new wine in new bottles.
A concept that has never been heard of, with polarized opinions; some think it's a scam, while others firmly believe it's the future.
Because there is no reference, the price space is the least restricted, and the speculation cycle is the longest.
This type is often the one that can truly break out into a big market.
The second type is new wine in old bottles.
Old logic presented in a new way; it can capture a short-term emotional dividend, but once the heat fades, it quickly reveals its true nature.
You can participate, but you must be quick in and out; don't linger.
The third type is old wine in old bottles.
Outdated concepts repackaged repeatedly, just to find someone to take over.
When you see this, the best operation is to just avoid it.
So, don’t rush to label a new hotspot as a 'tax on intelligence'.
The market truly offers opportunities often in the most controversial places.
Just one thing to remember:
Opportunities are only reserved for those who are ahead,
Once everyone has figured it out, only the guards are left.
Understanding the rhythm is more important than understanding the story.
