Tonight, the last CPI report for the U.S. in 2025 will be released: a tug-of-war around the 3% mark, with "2% range" still being the market's biggest expectation.

It is widely expected that the year-on-year increase of the November CPI will expand to 3.1% (slightly higher than the 3.0% in September), while the core CPI is expected to remain at 3.0%. "Whether the reading falls in the '2% range' or '3% range' will be crucial," analysts predict that if inflation returns to the 2% range, it will significantly boost risk appetite and may open up space for a year-end 'Christmas rally' in U.S. stocks; conversely, if it stabilizes above 3%, it will reinforce the narrative of 'higher rates for longer'.