Silver leads the rise, gold fluctuates at a high level: How will the precious metals market perform in 2026?

Currently, the precious metals market is characterized by silver leading a strong rise, gold following suit, and other varieties merely contributing to the overall trend. This trend is likely to continue for a long time. Recently, the strong one-sided rise in silver is the inevitable result of the four core factors of finance, industry, supply and demand, and capital coming together as one.

First, the macro financial aspect has provided sufficient upward momentum. The market is speculating about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which directly lowers real interest rates and weakens the dollar; the cost of holding interest-free silver naturally decreases. Additionally, with geopolitical tensions escalating in various regions, risk-averse funds are rushing into the silver market, directly pushing up the market.

Second, the supply and demand gap is widening, and silver is running out. On the supply side, the production of major silver-producing countries has been declining, and expanding production is not so easy. For five consecutive years, supply has been less than demand, and the silver inventory available for delivery in exchanges is decreasing day by day. On the demand side, the demand for silver has directly exploded in booming industries such as photovoltaic power stations, AI servers, and new energy vehicles, with industrial silver accounting for over 65%, and the supply-demand gap continues to expand.

Third, the combination of capital and sentiment is pushing the market higher. The silver ETF has been aggressively increasing positions; with inventory too low it triggered a short squeeze, and both retail and institutional investors are bullish, creating a heightened sentiment. Additionally, gold has performed better than silver over the past two years, and now the market is beginning to rotate. Everyone is waiting for the gold-silver ratio to return to normal, which is also forcing silver to catch up.

Fourth, the strategic position of silver has been upgraded, adding another layer of upward momentum. The U.S. has listed silver as a critical mineral, and the market has begun to worry that silver may be hoarded in the future, and supply chains could face issues, igniting bullish sentiment once again.

Following this momentum, it is not impossible for international silver prices to hit the $100 per ounce mark.

Looking at gold now, although it is at a historical high, the rapid rise of silver has completely blocked the decline of gold. When silver rises to a point of overheating and takes a breather, market rotation will push gold back to its position as the 'leader' of precious metals, starting a new round of increases. Gold is basically unable to fall now, but the upward space is completely opened up—looking back at history, every 'high point' that was felt at the time eventually becomes a new starting point. Each pullback now is a rare buying opportunity.

Tonight's U.S. CPI data and tomorrow night's potential interest rate hike in Japan are two major events. Before these two events occur, precious metals are likely to experience fluctuations. Here are two clear strategies for entering gold positions:

1. Callback for low buy: If the gold price in the European and American markets falls to the range of 4300-4270, and there are signs of stabilization in the smaller time frames, enter decisively.

2. Breakout chase: The current gold price is oscillating around 4330. If it can break through the key resistance level of 4350, the bulls will definitely accelerate upwards, and the level of 4380 is likely to be reached. Setting a new historical high is just a matter of time; the domestic gold breaking the thousand yuan mark will naturally follow.

The core logic of being bullish on gold and silver is already so clear, are you still afraid of the price being too high to enter the market? $BTC $ETH $BNB #黄金 #白银 #黄金下跌