Dear Traders,
Japan’s interest rate decision is coming tomorrow, and I’ve looked at how the market reacted in the past especially when rates were raised by 25 bps.
The big difference this time is expectation vs surprise.
Last year, the rate hike was unexpected, so Bitcoin dropped hard from 62,000 to 49,590. The fall happened because the market wasn’t ready.
This time, traders already expect the hike. Most people are already in short positions, and a lot of liquidity is sitting there.
From my view, the downside should be limited.
I expect a maximum drop of about 5%:
BTC could test 80,200
Maybe 78,500
In a worst case, 74,500
After that, a strong bounce toward 89,500 is likely.
Looking further, next week’s price structure points to around 101,500.
@Crypto_LUX looks at impact, trader positions, and liquidity, not just news headlines.
Direction matters more than fear.
If you have questions, comment below.
