Right now, there is a lack of performance on the opposite side.

Positive news brings the opposite side, and the market will clear the opposite side.

Because the market lacks sustained capital to drive the coin price.

Thus, the crypto market is extremely sensitive.

——

Assuming there are a large number of quant/traders participating in the market right now, but the coin price remains stable.

When positive news appears,

First, event-driven institutions will chase long positions.

Retail investors will also lag behind the event-driven institutions and similarly chase long positions.

However, the positive capital is not continuous; event-driven institutions will quickly close their positions, leading to market sell pressure. Retail investors are impulsive, not continuous.

This does not bring in pricing-level capital.

Thus, short-term positive news drives price fluctuations while also disrupting the original gaming relationship.

"Rebalancing" will bring about a reverse change in the market.

Therefore, the more short-term positive news there is, the easier it is to create fluctuations.

With Christmas approaching, the entire market's defense is significant, and capital is very conservative.

——

When will the breakthrough happen?

Change in pricing levels or real improvement in liquidity.

Here, it is important to distinguish the adjustments in liquidity management tools.

I believe everyone should still learn about options to study arbitrage from a higher perspective.

Otherwise, I really recommend watching less and acting less.

rv could be very important.

The speed of rv suppression actually reflects the current scale of institutions in the market.

As for directional judgment, I believe it is already lagging behind.

Of course, shorting is also more advantageous.

Because retail investors see positive news and tend to go long.

When they see negative news, they do not tend to short/sell, but rather hold on.

These two are obviously unbalanced.