Bitcoin’s $BTC realized value — a measure of the aggregate cost basis of coins in circulation — has climbed to an unprecedented $1.125 trillion, continuing its ascent even as prices retraced roughly 36% from recent highs.

According to Bitwise strategist Andre Dragosch, current bitcoin $BTC valuations appear misaligned with an increasingly constructive macro environment. Persistent economic strength alongside a potentially more accommodative Federal Reserve could provide fuel for further gains, challenging the relevance of the traditional four-year market cycle narrative.

Despite a near 40% drawdown over the past ten weeks, bitcoin’s realized capitalization remains at record levels, reinforcing the view that the broader market structure remains firmly bullish.

Unlike headline market capitalization, realized cap assigns value based on the price at which each coin last changed hands, offering a clearer lens into genuine capital commitment rather than short-term price volatility.

On-chain data from Glassnode indicates that realized capitalization continued to expand throughout the recent pullback from October’s peak, before leveling off near the $1.125 trillion mark. A comparable consolidation occurred during the April 2025 tariff-driven selloff, when bitcoin found support around $76,000 and subsequently rallied to new record levels.

In contrast, the 2022 downturn saw realized capitalization contract sharply as holders capitulated and assets were redistributed at lower cost bases. That pattern of stress-driven outflows is notably absent in the current market, signaling sustained conviction among long-term participants.